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Azerbaijani Politics MENA in Turbulence Oil / Natural Gas / Green Energy South Caucasus Region

Azerbaijan’s Emerging Role in Post-Assad Syria

On May 4, an Azerbaijani delegation of state officials arrived in Damascus at the invitation of the interim Syrian government. Vice Prime Minister Samir Sharifov, who led the delegation, was received by Syria’s transitional President, Ahmad Al-Sharaa. The delegations discussed opportunities for collaboration in key areas, including the economy, energy, culture, and education. The visit followed a meeting between Al-Sharaa and Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev in Turkey at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, where the two leaders explored the potential for closer ties.

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Azerbaijani Politics Central Asia I China I Russia South Caucasus Region

Azerbaijan and the People’s Republic of China Announce Comprehensive Strategic Partnership

Ilham Aliyev met with President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping » Official web-site of President of Azerbaijan Republic

  • On April 22, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev conducted a state visit to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to strengthen Azerbaijan’s role as a transit hub between the PRC, Central Asia, and Europe and expand the Azerbaijan-PRC partnership to new spheres.
  • Azerbaijan–PRC cooperation has been based on Azerbaijan’s role as a transit hub but is evolving to include cooperation in energy and key industrial sectors, such as oil and gas, metallurgy, construction materials, pharmaceuticals, and food production.
  • Azerbaijan has devoted enormous resources to attracting PRC and Western use of the Middle Corridor, massively improving and modernizing its trade infrastructure, and optimizing cargo transportation.

On April 22, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev conducted a state visit to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), meeting with President Xi Jinping to cement the bilateral partnership that began in 2024 (PRC State Council Information Office, April 24). During the visit, Aliyev and Xi signed an agreement to establish a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between Azerbaijan and the PRC (China Brief, September 20, 2024; President of Azerbaijan, April 23). The visit came at a tense time for the PRC as an intensifying trade war with the United States motivates Beijing to seek alternative transit routes and destinations for exports. Azerbaijan’s role as a viable transit hub between the PRC, Central Asia, and Europe positions it to cultivate partnerships with nearly all regional states. Baku accordingly plays a role in both the PRC-led “One Belt One Road” (OBOR) initiative and the Middle Corridor, underscoring Azerbaijan’s growing of ties with the PRC and European Union (see EDM, April 30, 2019, October 28, 2024, February 19, April 23; Trend.az, April 24; see China Brief, June 21, 2024).

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Azerbaijani Politics Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence Oil / Natural Gas / Green Energy South Caucasus Region

Azerbaijan redraws its foreign policy map

Aliyev invites interim Syrian President al-Sharaa to visit AzerbaijanIn the last five years, Azerbaijan has explicitly shifted its traditional foreign policy strategy by making inroads into regions far beyond the post-Soviet space, including the Balkans, Middle East, and more recently Sub-Saharan Africa, often through energy projects led by its well-known State Oil Company (SOCAR).

A revelation about the extent of Azerbaijan’s regional diplomatic outreach came during the annual conference in ADA University in Baku on April 9, when Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev commented on numerous issues regarding the geopolitical landscape, including on Azerbaijan’s stance toward the ongoing Israel-Turkey standoff. Commenting on the confrontation between two friendly nations — both Israel and Turkey are strategic allies of Baku — Aliyev for the first time revealed that Baku once successfully mediated the Israel-Turkey reconciliation in 2022, resulting in a re-opening of embassies after several years, even though shortly after the breakout of the Gaza War relations were repeatedly put on hold.

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Azerbaijani Politics Central Asia I China I Russia Pax Caucasia Russia in Caucasus South Caucasus Region Transit Routes in Eurasia Turkey-Azerbaijan Partnership

New book available: Strategic Implications of the War in Ukraine for the Post-Soviet Space: A View from Caucasus and Central Asia

Strategic Implications of the War in Ukraine for the Post-Soviet SpaceThis groundbreaking volume offers an in-depth exploration of how Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has reshaped the geopolitical landscape of the post-Soviet space, particularly in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Through expert analyses, the book examines the far-reaching consequences of the war, including shifts in regional alliances, energy security dynamics, the rise of new cooperation platforms, and the growing role of external actors such as China and Turkey.

Through rigorous analysis, the book explores critical themes such as the shifting balance of power in the region, the re-emergence of the Organization of Turkic States, Azerbaijan’s deepening engagement with Central Asia, Kazakhstan’s strategic repositioning, and the complex interplay between Russia, China, Turkey, and the West.

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Azerbaijani Politics MENA in Turbulence South Caucasus Region

Can Netanyahu Form a U.S.-Israel-Azerbaijan Axis Against Iran?

As tensions deepen between the United States-Israel alliance and Iran and the odds of a military strike against Tehran increase, both nations appear intent on expanding their relations with Azerbaijan—adding a key force multiplier to the conflict.

The rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape in the Middle East has recently been endangered by the United States-led airstrikes targeting Yemen’s Houthi rebels as a part of Trump’s administration’s broader pressure campaign against Iranian-backed proxy groups across the region. Indeed, Iran’s renewed efforts to boost its proxy network amid Israel’s war in Gaza caused a security vacuum, resulting in tectonic changes in the region. As such, deadly attacks against the Houthis in Yemen are a largely reciprocal move due to their frequent missile attacks on Israeli cities, civilian infrastructure, and on merchant ships in the Red Sea.

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Central Asia I China I Russia Iran in Caucasus and Beyond

Uncertain Alliances: Will Russia Abandon Iran in Favor of U.S. Negotiations?

China, Iran, Russia to hold joint naval drill, eye military cooperation boost: Chinese defense ministry - Global Times

Russia and Iran have long been bound together by unrelenting hostility to—and from—the United States. But Russia’s open embrace of the Trump administration has led leaders in Tehran to wonder just how durable their relationship with the Kremlin truly is.

On March 12, Iran, China, and Russia launched joint naval drills in the Gulf of Oman, marking their fifth joint exercises in the last few years. The recent war games came amid the ongoing border tensions in the Middle East—with direct clashes between the Israeli Defense Forces and Iranian proxy groups, including continuous attacks from the Yemen-based Houthi rebels in the Red Sea. According to the Russian media, the exercises involved warships and aviation, focusing on the protection of “maritime economic activity.”

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Central Asia I China I Russia Oil / Natural Gas / Green Energy

Türkiye-Turkmenistan Gas Deal Opens Possibilities for New Routes

Turkey Imports Gas From Turkmenistan Via Iran Under Barter Deal – Eurasia Review

Executive Summary:

  • In mid-February, Türkiye and Turkmenistan signed an agreement facilitating the flow of natural gas through Iran, a step to enhance Türkiye’s energy security and diversify its supply.
  • Iran’s infrastructure technical issues and the increased likelihood of U.S. sanctions could cause supply disruptions, as has occurred in the past.
  • Türkiye aims to establish itself as a key energy trade hub and create additional export routes, while Turkmenistan can export more gas through new routes, particularly to Europe.

On February 14, Türkiye’s Energy Minister, Alparaslan Bayraktar, announced that a new energy agreement was signed with Turkmenistan, strengthening the bilateral relations between Ankara and Ashgabat. The main stakeholders of the agreement are Türkiye’s state-owned pipeline operator BOTAŞ and Turkmenistan’s state-owned Turkmengaz. The new agreement envisages 2 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas flow from Turkmenistan to Türkiye through Iran via its existing natural gas network, which began on March 1 (Caspian Post, February 14; Anadolu Ajansı, March 2). The new swap agreement is a remarkable milestone in enhancing Türkiye’s energy security and attempts to diversify its supply sources.

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Azerbaijani Politics Oil / Natural Gas / Green Energy South Caucasus Region

Azerbaijan’s Deepening Energy Ties With Israel

Azerbaijan has boosted ties with Israel despite Israel’s harsh prosecution of the Gaza war since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023

Azerbaijan and Israel, which have long cultivated close ties in defense and intelligence, are strengthening cooperation in the energy field.

Last October, Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company (SOCAR) acquired a 10 percent stake in Israel’s Tamar gas field as part of the company’s Mediterranean upstream strategy. The investment, SOCAR’s first direct upstream venture in the Mediterranean, signals Azerbaijan’s intent to deepen its economic and geopolitical footprint in the Middle East while reinforcing its strategic alliance with Israel. SOCAR’s expansion into the Mediterranean basin intensifies Azerbaijan’s soft power and opens the prospect of additional gas exports to southeastern Europe. SOCAR reportedly bought the stake from Union Energy, which is operated by Chevron.

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Oil / Natural Gas / Green Energy

Turkey’s investment flows boost Romania’s solar power potential

Turkey’s investment flows boost Romania’s solar power potential

Turkey has emerged as a relatively new, strong actor in Romania’s renewable energy sector through recent investments and joint ventures. Turkey’s interest in Romania’s energy field is driven not only by economic interests and soft power diplomacy but also by the strong demand for additional energy sources.

Turkey’s growing investments in Romania reflect its broader geopolitical interests. Since 2023, Turkish investors have entered the market through acquisitions, joint ventures and new solar projects and began carrying out projects in the same year.

This also reflects the recent strong growth of Romania’s renewables sector. Romania closed 2024 with 5 GW of installed photovoltaic capacity, a significant increase compared to the 3.2 GW recorded in 2023. Undoubtedly, ongoing global and regional upheavals, particularly the Russo-Ukraine war and climate change, pushed Romania to focus more on its national green strategy.

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MENA in Turbulence

Turkey, PKK Make New Peace Overtures Amid Regional Shifts and Possible Erdogan Power Play

What does Öcalan's call for the PKK to lay down arms mean for Turkey and Syria? | Euronews

Turkey’s Interior Ministry conducted large-scale raids in 51 cities, including the Kurdish-majority city of Diyarbakir in the southeast, on Feb. 18, arresting 282 people for alleged ties with the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The arrests stirred heated debate within Turkish society, constituting renewed pressure on the group but also sending mixed signals amid a new bid by the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to resolve the decades-long insurgency by the PKK and strike a peace deal that could put an end to one of the most violent conflicts in the region. The attempt at a rapprochement is the first sustained effort since the two sides tried – but failed – to reconcile in 2014. Just yesterday, the PKK’s imprisoned founder and longtime leader, Abdullah Ocalan, issued an unprecedented call from prison saying, “all groups must lay down their arms and the PKK must dissolve itself.”

While Ocalan’s call on his followers was indeed a historical move and likely will influence Kurdish militant groups across the Middle East, it is still arguable whether his appeal will result in the massive surrender of the PKK and its Syrian affiliations. For example, Mazlum Kobane, the leader of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria, has said that “Ocalan’s call on disarmament is not related to us.”

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