Category: Central Asia I China I Russia

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Azerbaijani Politics Central Asia I China I Russia South Caucasus Region

Azerbaijan and the People’s Republic of China Announce Comprehensive Strategic Partnership

Ilham Aliyev met with President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping » Official web-site of President of Azerbaijan Republic

  • On April 22, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev conducted a state visit to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to strengthen Azerbaijan’s role as a transit hub between the PRC, Central Asia, and Europe and expand the Azerbaijan-PRC partnership to new spheres.
  • Azerbaijan–PRC cooperation has been based on Azerbaijan’s role as a transit hub but is evolving to include cooperation in energy and key industrial sectors, such as oil and gas, metallurgy, construction materials, pharmaceuticals, and food production.
  • Azerbaijan has devoted enormous resources to attracting PRC and Western use of the Middle Corridor, massively improving and modernizing its trade infrastructure, and optimizing cargo transportation.

On April 22, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev conducted a state visit to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), meeting with President Xi Jinping to cement the bilateral partnership that began in 2024 (PRC State Council Information Office, April 24). During the visit, Aliyev and Xi signed an agreement to establish a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between Azerbaijan and the PRC (China Brief, September 20, 2024; President of Azerbaijan, April 23). The visit came at a tense time for the PRC as an intensifying trade war with the United States motivates Beijing to seek alternative transit routes and destinations for exports. Azerbaijan’s role as a viable transit hub between the PRC, Central Asia, and Europe positions it to cultivate partnerships with nearly all regional states. Baku accordingly plays a role in both the PRC-led “One Belt One Road” (OBOR) initiative and the Middle Corridor, underscoring Azerbaijan’s growing of ties with the PRC and European Union (see EDM, April 30, 2019, October 28, 2024, February 19, April 23; Trend.az, April 24; see China Brief, June 21, 2024).

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Azerbaijani Politics Central Asia I China I Russia Pax Caucasia Russia in Caucasus South Caucasus Region Transit Routes in Eurasia Turkey-Azerbaijan Partnership

New book available: Strategic Implications of the War in Ukraine for the Post-Soviet Space: A View from Caucasus and Central Asia

Strategic Implications of the War in Ukraine for the Post-Soviet SpaceThis groundbreaking volume offers an in-depth exploration of how Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has reshaped the geopolitical landscape of the post-Soviet space, particularly in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Through expert analyses, the book examines the far-reaching consequences of the war, including shifts in regional alliances, energy security dynamics, the rise of new cooperation platforms, and the growing role of external actors such as China and Turkey.

Through rigorous analysis, the book explores critical themes such as the shifting balance of power in the region, the re-emergence of the Organization of Turkic States, Azerbaijan’s deepening engagement with Central Asia, Kazakhstan’s strategic repositioning, and the complex interplay between Russia, China, Turkey, and the West.

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Central Asia I China I Russia Iran in Caucasus and Beyond

Uncertain Alliances: Will Russia Abandon Iran in Favor of U.S. Negotiations?

China, Iran, Russia to hold joint naval drill, eye military cooperation boost: Chinese defense ministry - Global Times

Russia and Iran have long been bound together by unrelenting hostility to—and from—the United States. But Russia’s open embrace of the Trump administration has led leaders in Tehran to wonder just how durable their relationship with the Kremlin truly is.

On March 12, Iran, China, and Russia launched joint naval drills in the Gulf of Oman, marking their fifth joint exercises in the last few years. The recent war games came amid the ongoing border tensions in the Middle East—with direct clashes between the Israeli Defense Forces and Iranian proxy groups, including continuous attacks from the Yemen-based Houthi rebels in the Red Sea. According to the Russian media, the exercises involved warships and aviation, focusing on the protection of “maritime economic activity.”

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Central Asia I China I Russia Oil / Natural Gas / Green Energy

Türkiye-Turkmenistan Gas Deal Opens Possibilities for New Routes

Turkey Imports Gas From Turkmenistan Via Iran Under Barter Deal – Eurasia Review

Executive Summary:

  • In mid-February, Türkiye and Turkmenistan signed an agreement facilitating the flow of natural gas through Iran, a step to enhance Türkiye’s energy security and diversify its supply.
  • Iran’s infrastructure technical issues and the increased likelihood of U.S. sanctions could cause supply disruptions, as has occurred in the past.
  • Türkiye aims to establish itself as a key energy trade hub and create additional export routes, while Turkmenistan can export more gas through new routes, particularly to Europe.

On February 14, Türkiye’s Energy Minister, Alparaslan Bayraktar, announced that a new energy agreement was signed with Turkmenistan, strengthening the bilateral relations between Ankara and Ashgabat. The main stakeholders of the agreement are Türkiye’s state-owned pipeline operator BOTAŞ and Turkmenistan’s state-owned Turkmengaz. The new agreement envisages 2 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas flow from Turkmenistan to Türkiye through Iran via its existing natural gas network, which began on March 1 (Caspian Post, February 14; Anadolu Ajansı, March 2). The new swap agreement is a remarkable milestone in enhancing Türkiye’s energy security and attempts to diversify its supply sources.

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Central Asia I China I Russia Oil / Natural Gas / Green Energy Transit Routes in Eurasia

Gas crunch emerging in East as Kazakhstan fails to meet China’s import requests

Gas crunch emerging in East as Kazakhstan fails to meet China’s import requests

The global energy crisis that is so apparent in the West is now becoming that much more visible in the East. Kazakhstan, one of the leading crude oil and gas suppliers in Asia, has announced that it intends to gradually decrease its natural gas flows to China, citing domestic consumption rising at what could become a crisis-inducing rate.

In June, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev ordered the government to cut gas exports and ensure that an additional 2bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas were available to consumers inside Kazakhstan. Tokayev said meeting domestic demand for gas must be held as an absolute priority over exports, with the gas to be sourced from the Tengiz field developed by a consortium led by US energy giant Chevron.

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Central Asia I China I Russia MENA in Turbulence Transit Routes in Eurasia

COMMENT: Why replenished ties between Uzbekistan and Turkey suit both Tashkent and Ankara

New Stage in Turkey-Uzbekistan Strategic Partnership – ERI

For both Uzbekistan and Turkey, progress in developing a strategic relationship with elements of trade, investment, and defence cooperation comes at an opportune time. Amid the ongoing momentous geopolitical developments, Tashkent needs to diversify its political outreach to maintain a multivector foreign policy in order to avoid falling under the sway of a particular regional actor. Ankara, meanwhile, wants relationships that revitalize its pan-Turkic agenda across Eurasia.

On March 29, President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid an official visit to Uzbekistan at the invitation of his counterpart President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The strategic partnership was top of the agenda. Although relations between Turkey and Uzbekistan remained stalled during the rule of late Uzbek leader Islam Karimov until 2016, his successor Mirziyoyev has very much brought Turkey into the picture under the multivector approach. For Turkey, the development of ties with Uzbekistan somewhat uneasily took some steps forward just as Ankara was attempting to moderate peace talks between Ukraine and Russia.

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Central Asia I China I Russia Oil / Natural Gas / Green Energy

The Growing Influence of the United Arab Emirates in a Complex Central Asian Region

Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi (L) and Nursultan Nazarbayev, President of Kazakhstan (R) in Astana during an official state visit in July 2018 /AFP
Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Nursultan Nazarbayev, President of Kazakhstan in Astana during an official state visit in July 2018 /AFP

With vast energy sources and favorable geography, Central Asia has been subject to intense rivalries between Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Gulf monarchies, among others, for influence.

The energy sector has become the key prize, with natural gas being of greatest importance. Increasingly, gas is a major source of exports for the region. Central Asia accounts for about 4 percent of global energy deposits. The oil reserves in Central Asia and along the Caspian Sea coast amount to 17 to 33 bbl/d, which are comparable to that of Qatar The Gulf monarchies have been particularly active in this area in recent years, signing several memoranda and partnerships in the region. The energy giant UAE heavily invests in energy sector of the Central Asian countries to increase its own footprint in the region, bring additional investments to fragile economies, and help them to move away from the energy-based economy. Also, the UAE’s growing investments in the region give additional leverage to Dubai-based private companies operating in these countries.

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Central Asia I China I Russia

How Will Erdogan’s Recent Visit to Uzbekistan Enhance Turkish-Uzbek Cooperation?

President Shavkat Mirzoyev and President Recep Tayyib Erdogan
President Shavkat Mirzoyev and President Recep Tayyib Erdogan

While Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is focused on the upcoming snap elections on June 24, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid a historic visit to Uzbekistan in early May. Uzbekistan-Turkey relations reached its zenith in the 1990s shortly after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Uzbekistan became an obvious target for Turkish soft power. Since the beginning of the 2000s, however, the bilateral relationship between Ankara and Tashkent deteriorated, in part because of the isolationist policy of then-President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov and also in part because of ideological differences and the fact that exiled opposition leader Muhammad Salih resided in Turkey.

When President Shavkat Mirziyoyev assumed power in Uzbekistan, hope arose for rapprochement. In February 2018, Turkey was one of the countries granted visa-free access to Uzbekistan, which has the potential to become a significant tourist destination as it is home to well-known Islamic cultural monuments like the Registan and the homeland of scholars like Imam al-Bukhari, Abu Mansur Maturidi, and Bahauddin Naqshband.

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Central Asia I China I Russia South Caucasus Region Transit Routes in Eurasia

China to Europe By Way of Azerbaijan’s Trans-Caspian Gateway

On February 6, the Azerbaijan-China Business forum held in Beijing gathered together a number of state officials including Minister of Economy Shahin Mustafayev, the Chairman of the Export and Investment Promotion Fund of Azerbaijan (AZPROMO), as well as officials from the Ministry of Commerce of China and the Chinese Council of Propaganda of International Trade. The business forum was reportedly devoted to the Trans-Caspian Transit Corridor as part of China-led ambitious Belt and Road Initiative.

The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, a corridor of 6,500 km links Asia with Europe and passes through countries including Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Turkey. A flagship project of the corridor, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) Railway, was inaugurated in October in 2017. The railway connects Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, establishing a freight and passenger link between Europe and China. During the inauguration ceremony President Ilham Aliyev stated that “Baku-Tbilisi-Kars will connect not only countries, but continents as well.” Thus, the BTK project is undoubtedly has enormous importance to the competitiveness of the Trans-Caspian corridor.

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Central Asia I China I Russia Pax Caucasia

Will the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars Railway Become Uzbekistan’s New Connection to Europe?

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 130

On September 27, the head of Azerbaijani Railways Company, Javid Gurbanov, along with his Georgian and Turkish counterparts, Mamuka Bakhtadze and Ahmad Arslan, respectively, attended the first test run by a passenger train along a section of the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars (BTK) railway, from the Georgian capital to Akhalkalaki (in the country’s southwest). After the test train reached the final destination, Gurbanov declared that the BTK railroad is likely ready to begin regular operation (AzVision, September 27). Hence, the minister of foreign affairs of Azerbaijan, Elmar Mammadyarov, during a joint press conference with Georgian Foreign Minister Mikheil Janelidze, in Tbilisi, stated that the official opening ceremony of the BTK will be held on October 30 of this year (Apsny.ge, October 10).

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