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Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence

Iran Grapples with a New Strategic Reality after Assad’s Ouster

The December 2024 ousting of Bashar al-Assad marked a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics, dramatically shifting the regional balance of power. For Iran, the downfall of one of its most steadfast allies represents a significant blow to its influence in Syria and across the broader Levant. While this moment will have immediate and far-reaching consequences, Iran’s loss of Syria also underscores the weakening of Tehran’s soft and hard power in the region. Since the bloody Syrian Civil War began, Iran has used Syria to boost its so-called Axis of Resistance, capitalizing on the power vacuum in the region to flood money, men, and material to its proxies. Indeed, the Iranian-Syrian alliance was not merely geopolitical but also ideological, grounded in shared resistance against Western and Israeli influence in the region.

However, repercussions from the Israel-Gaza war have dealt a heavy blow to Lebanese Hezbollah and by extension the Assad regime, effectively dismantling this axis. Iran’s access to the Mediterranean has been severely restricted, and its ability to threaten Israel via Hezbollah is now in jeopardy. With Syria in disarray, Tehran’s ambitions to dominate the volatile region look increasingly fragile.

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Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence

What Turkey Hopes to Gain From the HTS Offensive in Syria?

HTS' Julani threatens force to quell Idlib protests

Turkey’s support of the Syrian opposition not only weakens Assad but targets the Kurdish military stationed in northern Syria across the Turkish border.

Over the past several days, the main Syrian opposition force, Hayat Tahrir-al Sham (HTS), has carried out a lightning-fast offensive, pushing Syrian government troops out of the country’s second-largest city, Aleppo, and moving on to Hama.

The surprise attack exposed the weakness of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, which had survived a 2011-2016 civil war with the help of Iran and Russia. With little to no resistance from the government forces, HTS – an offshoot of al-Qaeda – and affiliated groups were able to seize control over Aleppo within a day and Hama shortly afterward.

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MENA in Turbulence

Houthi Attacks on Merchant Vessels Force a Reckoning in the Red Sea

Deepening tensions and turbulence have gripped the Middle East, caused by the War on Gaza and the emergent Iran-Israel confrontation. The security situation in the region has deteriorated, enabling other regional state and non-state actors to join the conflict. One of these prominent actors is the Yemen-based Houthi rebels, which have disrupted trade transiting the Red Sea by launching attacks on commercial vessels. Though the Houthis predicate their attacks on merchant vessels as targeting ships headed to Israel, their strikes have been more haphazard than the group’s rhetoric suggests.

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Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence

US Supply of Heavy Weapons to the KRG Worries Baghdad

The U.S. supply to Iraqi Kurdistan reflects a desire by Washington to maintain a long-term presence in the area beyond the withdrawal of U.S. forces from central Iraq next year.

Iraqi mass media confirmed recently that the Biden administration had delivered heavy artillery to the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) despite objections from Iraqi authorities in Baghdad.

The U.S. called the delivery of two dozen 105 mm M119 howitzers to the KRG a “long-planned transfer” meant to build capacity for Kurdish Peshmerga forces. But in Baghdad, there were calls from some to seize the artillery and concern that the new U.S. support could exacerbate already tense relations between Baghdad and Erbil, threatening efforts by Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani to improve ties with the KRG and preserve good relations with Washington despite the anticipated withdrawal of U.S. troops from central Iraq next year.

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Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence

Iran’s New Foreign Minister Tests the Limits of Iran’s Foreign Policy

Iran's president taps nuclear negotiator as foreign minister, woman for  housing post | The Times of Israel

On August 21, the Iranian parliament confirmed Abbas Aragchi, a well-known veteran diplomat, as foreign minister upon the recommendation of the newly-elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian. A product of the foreign policy establishment, Aragchi started his diplomatic career as a political analyst within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, rising through the ranks with a particular distinction. He gained notoriety in the West as one of the top negotiators of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which placed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in favor of sanctions relief.

Following domestic unrest in Iran, punctuated by mass riots in 2022, violent terror attacks in major Iranian cities, a shrinking economy, and heavy inflation. When President Ebrahim Raisi died unexpectedly in a helicopter crash in May 2024, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei allowed reformist lawmaker Masoud Pezeshkian, an ethnic Azerbaijani, to run in presidential elections. When Pezeshkian won the July 5 vote, he became the first reformist leader since Hassan Rouhani left office in 2021.

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MENA in Turbulence

Is the Balkan region Israel’s newfound interest?

Israeli President Isaac Herzog (left) with his Serbian counterpart Aleksander Vucic during his first visit to Belgrade. / Predsedništvo Srbije / Dimitrije Goll
Israeli President Isaac Herzog (left) with his Serbian counterpart Aleksander Vucic during his first visit to Belgrade. / Predsedništvo Srbije / Dimitrije Goll

Israeli President Isaac Herzog concluded his historic first visit to Albania in September, shortly after his first-ever trip to Serbia, where both sides agreed to deepen bilateral cooperation amid Israel’s extending military campaign against Hamas and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Although the recent intensive diplomatic dialogue between Israel and Balkan states is gaining more impetus, it is not a new phenomenon. In the last five years, much has been done to ensure Israel’s expanding diplomatic, security, and economic ties with the Balkans, particularly with Albania and Serbia.

In light of the worsening geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023 and Israel’s large-scale military campaign in Gaza and southern Lebanon, Tel Aviv sought to build new alliances and partnerships at a critical time. Hence, Israel’s kinship in building security ties with Serbia is essential, given its well-established defense industry in the Balkan region.

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Azerbaijani Politics MENA in Turbulence South Caucasus Region

Can Turkey Undercut Israel’s Alliance with Azerbaijan Over the Gaza War?

Azerbaijan has built strong partnerships with Israel in energy and defense for the last two decades despite also maintaining ties with Turkey and Iran

The impact of the geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East stemming from the ongoing Israel–Hamas war extends far beyond the region.

Since Hamas’s brutal October 7 terror attack on southern Israel, Israeli forces have conducted large-scale military operations in Gaza to try to destroy Hamas and armed radicals affiliated with the militant Palestinian group. Although many countries in Europe and Asia voiced support for Israel at least initially, others have tried to remain neutral, while countries such as Iran, Russia, Turkey, Ireland, and Spain have blamed Israel for the excessive use of force in Gaza and disregard of civilian lives.

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MENA in Turbulence Russia in Caucasus Transit Routes in Eurasia

Türkiye Demonstrates Increased Interest in BRICS Membership

Turkey wants to join BRICS - ảnh 1

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 21 Issue: 100
Executive Summary:
  •  In June, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss, among other issues, Türkiye’s prospective membership in the loose-economic grouping of BRICS, which Putin “fully supports.”
  • The impetus for BRICS expansion has grown significantly amid Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with Moscow and Beijing promoting it as a critical counterweight to US and Western influence.
  • Türkiye’s pursuit of BRICS membership looks to promote foreign investment, increased market access, and economic growth and reflects a foreign policy tradition of balancing between regional powers.

On June 11, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attended a session of the BRICS group (a loose political-economic grouping originally consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) in Moscow. While there, he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu (Turkish Foreign Ministry, June 11). During the face-to-face meeting with Putin, Fidan discussed bilateral economic and political relations, focusing on the geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East caused by the war in Gaza (Al-Monitor, June 16). Putin vowed to “fully support” Turkish membership in BRICS and build stronger ties to facilitate further economic cooperation.

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MENA in Turbulence Transit Routes in Eurasia

The Saudi-Sino Military Partnership: Ambitious or Overhyped?

On June 18, Saudi Arabia’s Defense Minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, paid an official visit to China to meet his Chinese counterpart, Admiral Dong Jun, and discuss ways to boost the military partnership between the two states. The Saudi defense minister’s first visit to Beijing should come as a little surprise as China’s arms exports to Riyadh have increased significantly in recent years.

Although the United States has traditionally occupied the role of Saudi Arabia’s main security partner and predominant arms supplier, between 2016 and 2020, China increased its arms transfers to Saudi Arabia by nearly 400 percent compared to the previous five-year period. In 2017, Saudi Arabia acquired several Chinese Wing Loong II drones and entered into a memorandum of understanding with China to manufacture an additional 300 drones domestically. The export of Chinese-made unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has become a political football between Riyadh and Washington, which refused to sell indigenously manufactured UAVs to the Gulf states—prompting a frustrated Saudi Arabia to look eastward.

Categories
MENA in Turbulence Oil / Natural Gas / Green Energy

Risky Business: Saudi Arabia’s Oil Price Hike and Market Reaction

As the world’s leading energy exporter, Saudi Arabia’s decision to raise the price of oil for its Asian customers, namely China and India, is a significant development. The surprise move, announced ahead of the much-anticipated OPEC+ meeting on June 2, saw Saudi Aramco increase the price of Arab Light crude for Asia customers by over 300 percent—from $0.90 to $2.90 per barrel above the Oman-Dubai benchmark. Saudi officials cited strengthening oil benchmarks, particularly the price of Dubai-Oman crude, to justify the price hike. However, a more likely underlying motive would be Saudi Arabia’s desire to maintain high oil prices in the face of the ongoing war on Gaza and the potential for further destabilization across the Middle East, which pose a serious threat to global oil markets and the country’s economy—although the attempt to secure its own economic well-being will certainly buy it no friends to the east.