Category: Central Asia I China I Russia

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Central Asia I China I Russia

Kazakhstan Prioritizes Development of Technological Innovation

Kazakhstan's President Tokayev voted in as ruling party leader following deadly crackdown

Executive Summary:

  • Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, in his annual address to the nation on September 8, announced sweeping reforms, including digitalization and the creation of a Ministry of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to modernize governance and boost efficiency.
  • The new “Digital Qazaqstan” strategy aims to unify all national AI and digital initiatives, promoting innovation-driven growth.
  • Through initiatives such as Alatau City and investments in cryptocurrency, Astana envisions Kazakhstan as a regional digital hub, diversifying partnerships beyond Russia and the People’s Republic of China, while requiring transparency and effective fiscal management for success.

On September 8, President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proposed, in his annual address to the nation, hosting a referendum to return to a unicameral parliament, mirroring the single-chamber Supreme Council of the early post-independence years (President of Kazakhstan, September 8; Times of Central Asia, September 10). While some argued that this decision aims to enhance governance and offer better solutions to bureaucracy within the state apparatus, the president’s proposal highlighted a commitment to major reforms. These reforms extend beyond the parliament, such as digitalization and the development of a national strategy for Artificial Intelligence (AI) (Qazinform, September 9). In a broader global context and shifting priorities in the region, Tokayev’s speech shed light on rising geopolitical contradictions, conflicts, economic inequality, and new threats, including weapons based on AI.

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Central Asia I China I Russia

The Acceleration of Putin’s Shadow War

Photo: A Russian service member takes part in drills conducted by units of the Southern Military District in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict, at a firing range in the Rostov region, Russia October 4, 2024. Credit: REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov

Russia and Belarus held joint military drills in September. But the biennial exercises were overshadowed by something that may be more ominous — an outbreak of drone and aerial incursions across Poland and the Nordic-Baltic states that illustrate NATO members’ vulnerability to disabling attacks on fragile systems like civil airports.

Zapad-2025 is a well-established Kremlin method of showcasing its military capabilities to its near-neighbors. The official reason for September’s large-scale exercises is to test the ability of the two countries to repel an enemy attack, retake lost territory, and secure the borders of what they refer to as their “Union State.” 

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Azerbaijani Politics Central Asia I China I Russia

Kazakhstan Aims to Modernize Military Through Multivector Diplomacy

Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan to hold joint naval drills ‘Caspian Wind-2025’ in Aktau
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 22 Issue:

Executive Summary:

  • In response to shifting regional dynamics primarily driven by Russia’s war against Ukraine, Kazakhstan is reshaping its security posture by reducing military dependence on Moscow and prioritizing self-reliance, regional partnerships, and defense modernization.
  • Astana is focusing on its role as a “middle power,” allowing Kazakhstan to exert greater regional and global influence through integration into multilateral organizations, expanded participation in international initiatives, and diversified defense imports.
  • Kazakhstan has pursued diverse international military collaborations, particularly through joint exercises, weapons co-production, and strategic coordination with Türkiye and Azerbaijan, enabling it to adopt a more independent defense strategy.

Kazakhstan has recently been making steps to improve its defense capabilities. In April 2025, the Kazakh Ministry of Defense confirmed that a legislative framework was established to regulate the Defense Industry Development Fund, which was created in December 2023 (Prime Minister of Kazakhstan, April 14; Inform.kz, April 16). The new defense fund aims to acquire and manufacture domestically crucial military hardware, such as artillery ammunition, weapons systems, and combat modules.

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Azerbaijani Politics Central Asia I China I Russia South Caucasus Region

Azerbaijan and the People’s Republic of China Announce Comprehensive Strategic Partnership

Ilham Aliyev met with President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping » Official web-site of President of Azerbaijan Republic

  • On April 22, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev conducted a state visit to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to strengthen Azerbaijan’s role as a transit hub between the PRC, Central Asia, and Europe and expand the Azerbaijan-PRC partnership to new spheres.
  • Azerbaijan–PRC cooperation has been based on Azerbaijan’s role as a transit hub but is evolving to include cooperation in energy and key industrial sectors, such as oil and gas, metallurgy, construction materials, pharmaceuticals, and food production.
  • Azerbaijan has devoted enormous resources to attracting PRC and Western use of the Middle Corridor, massively improving and modernizing its trade infrastructure, and optimizing cargo transportation.

On April 22, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev conducted a state visit to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), meeting with President Xi Jinping to cement the bilateral partnership that began in 2024 (PRC State Council Information Office, April 24). During the visit, Aliyev and Xi signed an agreement to establish a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between Azerbaijan and the PRC (China Brief, September 20, 2024; President of Azerbaijan, April 23). The visit came at a tense time for the PRC as an intensifying trade war with the United States motivates Beijing to seek alternative transit routes and destinations for exports. Azerbaijan’s role as a viable transit hub between the PRC, Central Asia, and Europe positions it to cultivate partnerships with nearly all regional states. Baku accordingly plays a role in both the PRC-led “One Belt One Road” (OBOR) initiative and the Middle Corridor, underscoring Azerbaijan’s growing of ties with the PRC and European Union (see EDM, April 30, 2019, October 28, 2024, February 19, April 23; Trend.az, April 24; see China Brief, June 21, 2024).

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Azerbaijani Politics Central Asia I China I Russia Pax Caucasia Russia in Caucasus South Caucasus Region Transit Routes in Eurasia Turkey-Azerbaijan Partnership

New book available: Strategic Implications of the War in Ukraine for the Post-Soviet Space: A View from Caucasus and Central Asia

Strategic Implications of the War in Ukraine for the Post-Soviet SpaceThis groundbreaking volume offers an in-depth exploration of how Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has reshaped the geopolitical landscape of the post-Soviet space, particularly in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Through expert analyses, the book examines the far-reaching consequences of the war, including shifts in regional alliances, energy security dynamics, the rise of new cooperation platforms, and the growing role of external actors such as China and Turkey.

Through rigorous analysis, the book explores critical themes such as the shifting balance of power in the region, the re-emergence of the Organization of Turkic States, Azerbaijan’s deepening engagement with Central Asia, Kazakhstan’s strategic repositioning, and the complex interplay between Russia, China, Turkey, and the West.

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Central Asia I China I Russia Iran in Caucasus and Beyond

Uncertain Alliances: Will Russia Abandon Iran in Favor of U.S. Negotiations?

China, Iran, Russia to hold joint naval drill, eye military cooperation boost: Chinese defense ministry - Global Times

Russia and Iran have long been bound together by unrelenting hostility to—and from—the United States. But Russia’s open embrace of the Trump administration has led leaders in Tehran to wonder just how durable their relationship with the Kremlin truly is.

On March 12, Iran, China, and Russia launched joint naval drills in the Gulf of Oman, marking their fifth joint exercises in the last few years. The recent war games came amid the ongoing border tensions in the Middle East—with direct clashes between the Israeli Defense Forces and Iranian proxy groups, including continuous attacks from the Yemen-based Houthi rebels in the Red Sea. According to the Russian media, the exercises involved warships and aviation, focusing on the protection of “maritime economic activity.”

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Central Asia I China I Russia Oil / Natural Gas / Green Energy

Türkiye-Turkmenistan Gas Deal Opens Possibilities for New Routes

Turkey Imports Gas From Turkmenistan Via Iran Under Barter Deal – Eurasia Review

Executive Summary:

  • In mid-February, Türkiye and Turkmenistan signed an agreement facilitating the flow of natural gas through Iran, a step to enhance Türkiye’s energy security and diversify its supply.
  • Iran’s infrastructure technical issues and the increased likelihood of U.S. sanctions could cause supply disruptions, as has occurred in the past.
  • Türkiye aims to establish itself as a key energy trade hub and create additional export routes, while Turkmenistan can export more gas through new routes, particularly to Europe.

On February 14, Türkiye’s Energy Minister, Alparaslan Bayraktar, announced that a new energy agreement was signed with Turkmenistan, strengthening the bilateral relations between Ankara and Ashgabat. The main stakeholders of the agreement are Türkiye’s state-owned pipeline operator BOTAŞ and Turkmenistan’s state-owned Turkmengaz. The new agreement envisages 2 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas flow from Turkmenistan to Türkiye through Iran via its existing natural gas network, which began on March 1 (Caspian Post, February 14; Anadolu Ajansı, March 2). The new swap agreement is a remarkable milestone in enhancing Türkiye’s energy security and attempts to diversify its supply sources.

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Central Asia I China I Russia Oil / Natural Gas / Green Energy Transit Routes in Eurasia

Gas crunch emerging in East as Kazakhstan fails to meet China’s import requests

Gas crunch emerging in East as Kazakhstan fails to meet China’s import requests

The global energy crisis that is so apparent in the West is now becoming that much more visible in the East. Kazakhstan, one of the leading crude oil and gas suppliers in Asia, has announced that it intends to gradually decrease its natural gas flows to China, citing domestic consumption rising at what could become a crisis-inducing rate.

In June, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev ordered the government to cut gas exports and ensure that an additional 2bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas were available to consumers inside Kazakhstan. Tokayev said meeting domestic demand for gas must be held as an absolute priority over exports, with the gas to be sourced from the Tengiz field developed by a consortium led by US energy giant Chevron.

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Central Asia I China I Russia MENA in Turbulence Transit Routes in Eurasia

COMMENT: Why replenished ties between Uzbekistan and Turkey suit both Tashkent and Ankara

New Stage in Turkey-Uzbekistan Strategic Partnership – ERI

For both Uzbekistan and Turkey, progress in developing a strategic relationship with elements of trade, investment, and defence cooperation comes at an opportune time. Amid the ongoing momentous geopolitical developments, Tashkent needs to diversify its political outreach to maintain a multivector foreign policy in order to avoid falling under the sway of a particular regional actor. Ankara, meanwhile, wants relationships that revitalize its pan-Turkic agenda across Eurasia.

On March 29, President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid an official visit to Uzbekistan at the invitation of his counterpart President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The strategic partnership was top of the agenda. Although relations between Turkey and Uzbekistan remained stalled during the rule of late Uzbek leader Islam Karimov until 2016, his successor Mirziyoyev has very much brought Turkey into the picture under the multivector approach. For Turkey, the development of ties with Uzbekistan somewhat uneasily took some steps forward just as Ankara was attempting to moderate peace talks between Ukraine and Russia.

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Central Asia I China I Russia Oil / Natural Gas / Green Energy

The Growing Influence of the United Arab Emirates in a Complex Central Asian Region

Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi (L) and Nursultan Nazarbayev, President of Kazakhstan (R) in Astana during an official state visit in July 2018 /AFP
Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Nursultan Nazarbayev, President of Kazakhstan in Astana during an official state visit in July 2018 /AFP

With vast energy sources and favorable geography, Central Asia has been subject to intense rivalries between Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, and the Gulf monarchies, among others, for influence.

The energy sector has become the key prize, with natural gas being of greatest importance. Increasingly, gas is a major source of exports for the region. Central Asia accounts for about 4 percent of global energy deposits. The oil reserves in Central Asia and along the Caspian Sea coast amount to 17 to 33 bbl/d, which are comparable to that of Qatar The Gulf monarchies have been particularly active in this area in recent years, signing several memoranda and partnerships in the region. The energy giant UAE heavily invests in energy sector of the Central Asian countries to increase its own footprint in the region, bring additional investments to fragile economies, and help them to move away from the energy-based economy. Also, the UAE’s growing investments in the region give additional leverage to Dubai-based private companies operating in these countries.

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