Category Archives: Iranian Politics

How pragmatism drives Azerbaijan-Iran shift on regional transit

Leave a reply

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi meets with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev in Tashkent, Uzbekistan on Nov. 9, 2023. (Photo via Iranian presidency)

After rising confrontation and a war of words in recent years, Azerbaijan and Iran have returned to the diplomatic track—emphasizing regional connectivity and infrastructure projects based on pragmatism.

Having pursued coercive diplomacy to contain the rising influence of Israel and Turkey in Azerbaijan since 2020, Tehran has opted for reversive diplomacy towards Baku to de-escalate tensions. The shift is part of a broader Iranian strategy of seeking rapprochement with neighboring states, including Saudi Arabia.

Transit in focus

Regional infrastructure projects lie at the heart of the current pragmatism in the Azerbaijan-Iran relationship, putting political disputes on the back burner.

In Oct. 2023, Baku and Tehran laid the foundation for a new route connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through Iranian territory. The ceremony gathered Azerbaijani Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafayev and Iran’s Minister of Roads and Urban Development Mehrdad Bazrpash. Per the initial agreement, a road bridge will be constructed between the two countries, followed by new motorway and railway connections. Although there is currently a functioning road connection between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan via Iran, the new highway will significantly reduce travel time. Continue reading →

Increased Russian-Iranian Defense Cooperation Poses Threat to Ukraine and the West

Leave a reply

Putin Meets Ali Khamenei, Tehran, Iran - 19 Jul 2022

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 20 Issue: 189

On November 28, Iranian state media reported that Tehran had finalized a long-awaited deal with Russia to procure Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets, attack helicopters, and military trainer aircraft. Although some sources dubbed the announcement as another round of government speculation, Iranian Deputy Defense Minister General Mahdi Farahi confirmed the reports to semi-official news agency Tasnim (Tasnim News Agency, November 28). For its part, the Kremlin has yet to publicly confirm the reported agreement. Over the past year, Iran has made strides in the modernization and development of its air and naval forces. Intensified cooperation with Russia has largely facilitated that progress, with both sides signing agreements to boost their trade, energy, and military ties. The recent expansion of that partnership threatens Western interests in the wider region and could pose future risks to global stability. Continue reading →

How the Hamas-Israel war impacts the South Caucasus?

Leave a reply

Israeli President Isaac Herzog meets with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev in Baku, Azerbaijan on May 30, 2023. (Photo via Azerbaijani presidency)

The war between Hamas and Israel war has triggered strong anti-Israel sentiments in the region and heightened fears of a broader conflict engulfing actors such as Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey. Worried that the conflict in Gaza could escalate into a regional confrontation, the US has dispatched two aircraft carrier strike groups within range, including additional troops and military advisors.

But alongside tough rhetoric, the violence in Gaza has renewed apparent pragmatism by important regional states such as Iran and Turkey. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has openly slammed Israel’s bombings of the Palestinian coastal enclave. On the other hand, Ankara has avoided issuing direct threats against Tel Aviv and, in an apparent unusual move, allegedly distanced itself from Hamas in the aftermath of the Palestinian movement’s surprise attack on Israel last month. Continue reading →

Strategic Abstention: The ‘Axis of Resistance’ Deliberate Inaction in the Gaza War

Leave a reply

Amid the escalating Gaza war, a striking absence marks the regional conflict landscape: the non-involvement of the ‘Axis of Resistance,’ including Iran and its proxies. Nearly six weeks into the war, these forces have consistently communicated their decision to remain on the sidelines. This inaction comes into sharp focus against the backdrop of Iran’s strategy to leverage non-state actors like Hezbollah and Hamas in its proxy warfare. While Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, clarified their stance in a much-anticipated speech a month into the conflict, the impact of this abstention is profound. Israel, grappling with internal divisions and security vulnerabilities heightened by Hamas’s attacks, finds itself in a precarious position not seen in decades. This situation stems from both the far-right Israeli policies and Iran’s concerted efforts to fortify groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, aiming to undermine its adversaries. Despite Hamas’s inability to secure territory in southern Israel, their assaults have instilled widespread panic, exposing deep fissures in the Israeli society and igniting debates over the nation’s security resilience. Continue reading →

The new Iran – Azerbaijan transit route reflects shifting geopolitical realities

Leave a reply

Azerbaijan begins construction of corridor to Nakhchivan through Iran

Azerbaijan and Iran laid the foundation on October 6 for a transit route connecting western Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan through Iran. The road bridge is being built in line with the memorandum of mutual understanding between the governments of Azerbaijan and Iran on developing new transport links. According to the Azerbaijani media, the bridge will span the Araz River to connect to the Iranian province of Eastern Azerbaijan.

The new transit project announcement came amid the ongoing normalisation of ties between Azerbaijan and Iran after months of harsh diplomatic confrontation. From the Iranian perspective, there are several reasons behind the shift in diplomatic relations, but the most important is the changed regional balance of power in the South Caucasus following the war in 2020 between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Among the broader impacts of the war were the declining influence of Iran and the strengthening axis of Baku-Ankara and Baku-Tel Aviv in the region. Continue reading →

Unseen Tensions: The Undercurrents of Iran-Turkey Relations in the South Caucasus

Leave a reply

In a region of the world marked by dramatic, high-profile rivalries and conflicts—Israel and Palestine, Saudi Arabia and Iran, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, and the struggles for power within Syria and Yemen—the age-old rivalry between Iran and Turkey has largely gone unnoticed, even as it has sharply escalated in recent months. While the precise nature of the rivalry has changed as the two nations’ regimes have experienced some changes, and the degree to which Tehran and Ankara opposed one another in regional matters has waxed and waned, the two countries’ policies toward each other have displayed a remarkable degree of consistency—making the oldest rivalry in the Middle East one of the most relevant in the current era. Continue reading →

Despite Nagorno-Karabakh flareup, Azerbaijan-Iran set to pursue thaw

Leave a reply

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi meets with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan on Nov. 28, 2021. (Photo via Iranian presidency)

After years of rising tensions, the July visit to Baku by Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has signaled increased diplomacy between Azerbaijan and Iran. The apparent new détente brings positives for both sides.

For Iran, reconciliation with its northwestern neighbor will allow it to play a bigger role in the South Caucasus. Meanwhile, with improved relations with Tehran, Baku can focus its resources and attention elsewhere. Such efforts have also reduced the chances of a regional crisis breaking out, even as the flareup of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh may add complexities. Continue reading →

Azerbaijani-Iranian Tensions Disrupt the South Caucasus

Leave a reply

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 20 Issue: 63

On March 30, Azerbaijan officially inaugurated its first embassy in Tel Aviv, Israel, after avoiding the move for three decades. Although the decision highlighted the importance of Azerbaijani-Israeli relations, it quickly became a catalyst behind the renewed war of words between Iran and Azerbaijan (Themedialine.org, March 30). Since 2021, diplomatic relations between Tehran and Baku have steadily become embittered. Iran is primarily concerned with the decline of its influence in the South Caucasus, which has suffered since the end of the Second Karabakh War in 2020. As such, in an attempt by Tehran to flex its muscles and intimidate Azerbaijan, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps conducted large-scale military drills on the border with Azerbaijan in October 2022 (Eurasianet, October 20, 2022). Unlike previous years, the exercises provoked an uneasy reaction within Azerbaijan and triggered anti-Iranian sentiments throughout the country. Continue reading →

Is war between Iran and Azerbaijan out of the question?

Leave a reply

bne IntelliNews - TEHRAN BLOG: Iran takes aim at 'gambler' and 'political dwarf' Aliyev as Azerbaijan tensions simmer

Tensions between Azerbaijan and Iran have grown rather raw recently in the wake of Baku’s inauguration of its first-ever embassy in Israel. Of course, diplomatic relations between the neighbours have steadily become more and more inflamed and embittered for several years now, with Iran concerned at the declining influence in the South Caucasus it has suffered since the second Karabakh war between Azerbaijan, urged on by Turkey, and Armenia in late 2020. And with the normalisation of diplomatic ties between Tehran and Baku unlikely in the near future, the big question remains unanswered: Is it possible that the tensions could escalate into a large-scale regional conflict? Continue reading →