Category: Iran in Caucasus and Beyond

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Azerbaijani Politics Iran in Caucasus and Beyond South Caucasus Region

Türkiye and Azerbaijan Contend With Potential Kurdish Role in Iran Conflict

Azerbaijan hosts joint drills with Turkey near Armenia - International - World - Ahram Online

Executive Summary:

  • Ankara has signaled from the outset of the Iran conflict that it would consider military intervention in northern Iraq’s Kurdistan region should a Kurdish-led insurgency materialize.
  • Türkiye views potential Kurdish militancy in Iran as a direct national security threat, strongly opposes any armed Kurdish role, and has signaled it could consider intervention to prevent Kurdish cross-border insurgency and regional destabilization.
  • Azerbaijan fears Kurdish involvement in the Iran conflict could destabilize Iran’s northwest, inflaming ethnic tensions and endangering Azerbaijani minorities in the region along with regional connectivity drives. Ankara and Baku coordinate diplomatically and militarily to contain spillover risks.

Washington and Tel Aviv reportedly considered providing political and logistical support for Iranian Kurdish militant groups along the Iran–Iraq border in the first week or two of their conflict with Iran (Future War Magazine, March 26; The Times of Israel, March 29). The plan was abandoned in late March because of regional diplomatic pressure, Tehran’s military strikes on Kurdish regions of Iran and Iraq, Iran’s intelligence crackdown, inconsistent support from the United States and Israel, and media leaks. The potential involvement of Kurdish militias in the Iran conflict could draw more regional states into the conflict, particularly Türkiye, which has expressed clear opposition to any armed Kurdish role in Iran (Amwaj, March 25).

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Azerbaijani Politics Iran in Caucasus and Beyond South Caucasus Region

Will the Caspian Region Be Drawn Into the Iran War?

Photo: Navy ships of Iran and Azerbaijan move during an exercise between Iran and Azerbaijan in the Caspian Sea, Iran, in this picture obtained on November 4, 2024. Credit: Iranian Army/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS

Of the more than 12,000 Iranian sites targeted by the US and Israel, the strikes against an obscure Caspian Sea naval base seemed at first sight one of the oddest.

Israel said it hit dozens of targets, including warships, a command post, a shipyard, and port infrastructure at Bandar Anzali on March 18.

The operation marked the first-ever missile attack in the Caspian Sea. While the port is not the primary base of the Caspian Flotilla, also known as the Northern Fleet, it was likely a dispersal base for military units.

The aim? To strike at the Iranian-Russian military trade across the Caspian Sea, the Wall Street Journal reported. The route’s importance has been growing since Russia launched its all-out war on Ukraine four years ago, and now involves the shipment of key military items, including drones based on the Shahed design.

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Azerbaijani Politics Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence South Caucasus Region

Azerbaijan Seeks to Balance Ties with Israel, Turkey & Iran

Ilham Aliyev participated in panel session on “Defining Eurasia's Economic Identity” in Davos » Official web-site of President of Azerbaijan Republic
Azerbaijan is watching rising unrest in neighboring Iran and the prospect of new Israeli or American strikes on that country with concern

A late January visit by Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar to Baku, where he met with President Ilham Aliyev and Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, was framed by Azerbaijani state media as a significant event reflecting Azerbaijan’s growing authority within regional and global security frameworks.

Israel and Azerbaijan have a long-standing strategic partnership, and the inclusion of a large business delegation underscored Israel’s intent to expand economic cooperation with Azerbaijan, likely through joint projects in energy and infrastructure, especially in the formerly war-torn Karabakh region.

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Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence

After Israel’s wars, Iran struggles to regain regional influence

Top Iranian Adviser Visits Lebanon for High-Stakes War Negotiations - Newsweek

In mid-August, Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, visited both Lebanon and Iraq as part of Tehran’s attempt to bolster its diminished influence in the Middle East following the 12-day war with Israel in June.

The trip was also viewed as an effort to project power and revive Tehran’s regional network of proxy militias, including Hezbollah, which Israeli military operations have severely weakened over the past two years. Larijani, who is one of the most trusted political figures of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, visited Beirut on 13 August, at a time when the Lebanese state is moving ahead with plans to disarm Hezbollah by the end of the year and implement a ceasefire with Israel.

Although Hezbollah sustained colossal losses within its top leadership during Israel’s war, the Iranian-backed group is reluctant to lay down its arms and become a part of the transition. Last week, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that “we support any decision the group makes, but we do not intervene”.

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Azerbaijani Politics Iran in Caucasus and Beyond Karabakh in the Post-War Period South Caucasus Region

The Armenia-Azerbaijan Accord: A Catastrophe for Iran?

On August 8, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan gathered in Washington, D.C. to sign a historic U.S.-brokered peace accord in the presence of President Donald Trump. What was not included in the ink of the accord was any reference to the new geopolitical order in the South Caucasus that it cemented by capitalizing on the waning influence of Russia and Iran.  One of the key elements of the new deal includes the creation of a highly profitable strategic trade corridor that passes through both countries, making cross-border trade after decades of violent conflict. The route will run through the southern territories of Azerbaijan and Armenia, giving the former a direct land route with Turkey through its Nakhchivan exclave.

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Azerbaijani Politics Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence South Caucasus Region

Israel War Erodes Iran’s Relations with Azerbaijan

President Ilham Aliyev, President Masoud Pezeshkian hold phone talk
Iranian officials probe Israel’s alleged use of Azerbaijani airspace to hit Iranian targets

The 12-day Israel-Iran war revealed new vulnerabilities in the Islamic Republic and increased tensions between Iran and its neighbor, Azerbaijan.

In the aftermath of the strategic setback to Iranian nuclear and military facilities, Iran’s conservative political and security establishment began shifting focus toward perceived “close enemies” said to be complicit in the Israeli attacks. Among the primary targets of this narrative has been Iran’s northern neighbor, Azerbaijan, which Iranian state-run media and channels affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) accused of providing “intelligence support to Israel” during the strikes on nuclear, military, and civilian sites.

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Azerbaijani Politics Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence Oil / Natural Gas / Green Energy South Caucasus Region

Azerbaijan redraws its foreign policy map

Aliyev invites interim Syrian President al-Sharaa to visit AzerbaijanIn the last five years, Azerbaijan has explicitly shifted its traditional foreign policy strategy by making inroads into regions far beyond the post-Soviet space, including the Balkans, Middle East, and more recently Sub-Saharan Africa, often through energy projects led by its well-known State Oil Company (SOCAR).

A revelation about the extent of Azerbaijan’s regional diplomatic outreach came during the annual conference in ADA University in Baku on April 9, when Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev commented on numerous issues regarding the geopolitical landscape, including on Azerbaijan’s stance toward the ongoing Israel-Turkey standoff. Commenting on the confrontation between two friendly nations — both Israel and Turkey are strategic allies of Baku — Aliyev for the first time revealed that Baku once successfully mediated the Israel-Turkey reconciliation in 2022, resulting in a re-opening of embassies after several years, even though shortly after the breakout of the Gaza War relations were repeatedly put on hold.

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Central Asia I China I Russia Iran in Caucasus and Beyond

Uncertain Alliances: Will Russia Abandon Iran in Favor of U.S. Negotiations?

China, Iran, Russia to hold joint naval drill, eye military cooperation boost: Chinese defense ministry - Global Times

Russia and Iran have long been bound together by unrelenting hostility to—and from—the United States. But Russia’s open embrace of the Trump administration has led leaders in Tehran to wonder just how durable their relationship with the Kremlin truly is.

On March 12, Iran, China, and Russia launched joint naval drills in the Gulf of Oman, marking their fifth joint exercises in the last few years. The recent war games came amid the ongoing border tensions in the Middle East—with direct clashes between the Israeli Defense Forces and Iranian proxy groups, including continuous attacks from the Yemen-based Houthi rebels in the Red Sea. According to the Russian media, the exercises involved warships and aviation, focusing on the protection of “maritime economic activity.”

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Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence

Iran Grapples with a New Strategic Reality after Assad’s Ouster

The December 2024 ousting of Bashar al-Assad marked a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics, dramatically shifting the regional balance of power. For Iran, the downfall of one of its most steadfast allies represents a significant blow to its influence in Syria and across the broader Levant. While this moment will have immediate and far-reaching consequences, Iran’s loss of Syria also underscores the weakening of Tehran’s soft and hard power in the region. Since the bloody Syrian Civil War began, Iran has used Syria to boost its so-called Axis of Resistance, capitalizing on the power vacuum in the region to flood money, men, and material to its proxies. Indeed, the Iranian-Syrian alliance was not merely geopolitical but also ideological, grounded in shared resistance against Western and Israeli influence in the region.

However, repercussions from the Israel-Gaza war have dealt a heavy blow to Lebanese Hezbollah and by extension the Assad regime, effectively dismantling this axis. Iran’s access to the Mediterranean has been severely restricted, and its ability to threaten Israel via Hezbollah is now in jeopardy. With Syria in disarray, Tehran’s ambitions to dominate the volatile region look increasingly fragile.

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Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence

What Turkey Hopes to Gain From the HTS Offensive in Syria?

HTS' Julani threatens force to quell Idlib protests

Turkey’s support of the Syrian opposition not only weakens Assad but targets the Kurdish military stationed in northern Syria across the Turkish border.

Over the past several days, the main Syrian opposition force, Hayat Tahrir-al Sham (HTS), has carried out a lightning-fast offensive, pushing Syrian government troops out of the country’s second-largest city, Aleppo, and moving on to Hama.

The surprise attack exposed the weakness of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, which had survived a 2011-2016 civil war with the help of Iran and Russia. With little to no resistance from the government forces, HTS – an offshoot of al-Qaeda – and affiliated groups were able to seize control over Aleppo within a day and Hama shortly afterward.

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