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Azerbaijani Politics Oil / Natural Gas / Green Energy

Ukraine eyes key role in Azerbaijani gas transit to Europe

COMMENT: Ukraine eyes key role in Azerbaijani gas transit to Europe

Ukraine is positioning itself as a key transit hub for Azerbaijani gas to Europe, a move that could significantly alter the region’s energy landscape.

If successful, this would carve out a new role for Kyiv after Russian supplies stopped flowing to the rest of Europe via Ukraine on January 1, pushing up European wholesale energy prices.

The expiration of the Russian gas deal at the beginning of 2025 and Kyiv’s decision not to prolong the agreement triggered heated debates within the European Union as countries like Hungary and Slovakia harshly criticised Ukraine, accusing it of igniting the energy crisis with no drastic impact on Russia.

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Azerbaijani Politics Oil / Natural Gas / Green Energy South Caucasus Region Turkey-Azerbaijan Partnership

Azerbaijan’s SOCAR Invests in Türkiye’s Energy Sector

SOCAR Turkey expects rise in EBITDA to $1 bln in 2021 – The Tribune
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 22 Issue: 6

Executive Summary:

  • On January 6, the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) announced plans to invest in Türkiye’s energy sector. This move would strengthen bilateral ties and allow Baku to expand its influence in Europe and the Middle East.
  • SOCAR is critical in meeting Türkiye’s growing natural gas demand while advancing eco-friendly initiatives such as sustainable aviation fuel production, aligning with Azerbaijan’s green energy strategies.
  • Azerbaijan’s soft power is fueled by SOCAR through investments and diplomatic engagement, including potential energy supplies to Syria. This reflects Baku’s multivector foreign policy amid shifting Middle East geopolitics.

On January 6, the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) announced plans to invest $7 billion in Türkiye’s energy sector in the coming years (Report.az, January 6). Between 2008 and 2024, SOCAR Türkiye, SOCAR’s local subsidiary, invested $2 billion into the development of the petrochemical facilities of the Petkim petrochemical company privatized by SOCAR. The total investments of the company in the Turkish economy accounted for more than $18 billion in the same period, making the company the largest foreign investor in the country (ABC.az, January 6).

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Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence

Iran Grapples with a New Strategic Reality after Assad’s Ouster

The December 2024 ousting of Bashar al-Assad marked a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics, dramatically shifting the regional balance of power. For Iran, the downfall of one of its most steadfast allies represents a significant blow to its influence in Syria and across the broader Levant. While this moment will have immediate and far-reaching consequences, Iran’s loss of Syria also underscores the weakening of Tehran’s soft and hard power in the region. Since the bloody Syrian Civil War began, Iran has used Syria to boost its so-called Axis of Resistance, capitalizing on the power vacuum in the region to flood money, men, and material to its proxies. Indeed, the Iranian-Syrian alliance was not merely geopolitical but also ideological, grounded in shared resistance against Western and Israeli influence in the region.

However, repercussions from the Israel-Gaza war have dealt a heavy blow to Lebanese Hezbollah and by extension the Assad regime, effectively dismantling this axis. Iran’s access to the Mediterranean has been severely restricted, and its ability to threaten Israel via Hezbollah is now in jeopardy. With Syria in disarray, Tehran’s ambitions to dominate the volatile region look increasingly fragile.

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Azerbaijani Politics Pax Caucasia

Could Iran open new fronts against Israel and Azerbaijan?

Azerbaijan and Israel Hold Talks on Regional Security and Bilateral Relations

Hikmat Hajiyev, assistant to Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, held a face-to-face meeting with Israel’s President Isaac Herzog and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar in Jerusalem on December 9. This visit surprised many as the Jewish state continues to fight on several fronts against its enemies, including Hezbollah remnants repeatedly hitting more than 300 sites in Syria in recent days.

While Hajiyev’s trip came unannounced, it also came at a very critical and specific time in light of the overthrow of Syria’s Bashar Assad following 13 years-long bloody civil war. Although analysts for many years claimed that Bashar Assad “won the civil war” with the help of Iran and Russia, he prolonged the war, giving rise to a more solidified and regrouped opposition, which ultimately kicked out Iran’s fighters and the top-flight of the Syrian regime.

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Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence

What Turkey Hopes to Gain From the HTS Offensive in Syria?

HTS' Julani threatens force to quell Idlib protests

Turkey’s support of the Syrian opposition not only weakens Assad but targets the Kurdish military stationed in northern Syria across the Turkish border.

Over the past several days, the main Syrian opposition force, Hayat Tahrir-al Sham (HTS), has carried out a lightning-fast offensive, pushing Syrian government troops out of the country’s second-largest city, Aleppo, and moving on to Hama.

The surprise attack exposed the weakness of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, which had survived a 2011-2016 civil war with the help of Iran and Russia. With little to no resistance from the government forces, HTS – an offshoot of al-Qaeda – and affiliated groups were able to seize control over Aleppo within a day and Hama shortly afterward.

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Azerbaijani Politics Oil / Natural Gas / Green Energy

Will COP29 become a milestone in Azerbaijan’s long-term energy strategy?

COP29 çərçivəsində “SOCAR Green” və “PowerChina” şirkətləri arasında Anlaşma Memorandumu imzalanıb | Şərq qapısı

Despite its heavy reliance on fossil fuel exports for many years, Azerbaijan has now shifted its long-term energy strategy by steadily switching to renewable energy sources.

Thus, the 29th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) in Baku became a vital platform for Azerbaijan’s main energy giant SOCAR and its affiliate SOCAR Green LLC (established in December 2023) to ink new agreements with countries and companies in the field of green energy, smart technologies and decarbonisation.

Focus on gas

It is noteworthy that SOCAR started supplying North Macedonia with natural gas on November 15, while Azerbaijan was hosting the major climate event on its soil. Considering that natural gas is the cleanest fossil fuel, in contrast to crude oil, Baku did not hesitate to announce the new partnership during COP29.

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Azerbaijani Politics Iran in Caucasus and Beyond Karabakh in the Post-War Period South Caucasus Region

New Azerbaijan-Iran Railway Agreement Grapples With Regional Tensions

News

Executive Summary:

  • In October, Azerbaijani and Iranian officials discussed the Aras Corridor railway project, a strategic alternative to the contested Zangezur Corridor, amid ongoing Azerbaijan-Armenia tensions and diplomatic efforts to enhance regional connectivity following the 2020 Karabakh War.
  • The Aras Corridor strengthens Azerbaijan–Türkiye–Central Asia ties and aligns with Iran’s International North-South Transportation Corridor, enhancing regional connectivity and trade routes toward Russia.
  • Azerbaijan’s focus on the Aras Corridor reflects regional tensions, including opposition to the Zangezur Corridor, Iran-Israel conflicts, and Russia’s war against Ukraine. The project highlights Azerbaijan’s strategy of adapting to navigate shifting alliances and maintain regional goals.

On October 15, Chairman of Azerbaijan Railways Rovshan Rustamov arrived in Tehran to meet his Iranian counterpart Jabbar Ali Zakeri Sardroudi to discuss the construction of a railway line linking Azerbaijan’s East Zangezur region and its Nakhchivan exclave through Iran (News.az, October 15). The meeting came amid intensive diplomatic negotiations between Azerbaijan and Iran regarding the Aras Corridor transit route linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and further to Türkiye via Iran after a period of silence and diplomatic rifts between the two neighbors (see EDM, March 27).

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South Caucasus Region Transit Routes in Eurasia

Azerbaijan Railways releases the first ever public transport sustainability report for a major corporation

Azerbaijan Railways releases the republic's first ever sustainability report for a major corporation

As COP29 approaches, Azerbaijan Railways (ADY) released the first-ever sustainability report by a major state-owned corporation at an event in Baku on October 23.

The company released its “Sustainable Transport for the Future” report on the sustainable achievements of the company CJSC in the fields of environment, social, and management. The event’s main topic was the work done to achieve the decarbonization goals of sustainable transport in Azerbaijan, especially railways, with the application of green innovations and advanced digital solutions, and the steps to be taken in this direction.

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Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence

US Supply of Heavy Weapons to the KRG Worries Baghdad

The U.S. supply to Iraqi Kurdistan reflects a desire by Washington to maintain a long-term presence in the area beyond the withdrawal of U.S. forces from central Iraq next year.

Iraqi mass media confirmed recently that the Biden administration had delivered heavy artillery to the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) despite objections from Iraqi authorities in Baghdad.

The U.S. called the delivery of two dozen 105 mm M119 howitzers to the KRG a “long-planned transfer” meant to build capacity for Kurdish Peshmerga forces. But in Baghdad, there were calls from some to seize the artillery and concern that the new U.S. support could exacerbate already tense relations between Baghdad and Erbil, threatening efforts by Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani to improve ties with the KRG and preserve good relations with Washington despite the anticipated withdrawal of U.S. troops from central Iraq next year.

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Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence

Iran’s New Foreign Minister Tests the Limits of Iran’s Foreign Policy

Iran's president taps nuclear negotiator as foreign minister, woman for  housing post | The Times of Israel

On August 21, the Iranian parliament confirmed Abbas Aragchi, a well-known veteran diplomat, as foreign minister upon the recommendation of the newly-elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian. A product of the foreign policy establishment, Aragchi started his diplomatic career as a political analyst within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, rising through the ranks with a particular distinction. He gained notoriety in the West as one of the top negotiators of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which placed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in favor of sanctions relief.

Following domestic unrest in Iran, punctuated by mass riots in 2022, violent terror attacks in major Iranian cities, a shrinking economy, and heavy inflation. When President Ebrahim Raisi died unexpectedly in a helicopter crash in May 2024, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei allowed reformist lawmaker Masoud Pezeshkian, an ethnic Azerbaijani, to run in presidential elections. When Pezeshkian won the July 5 vote, he became the first reformist leader since Hassan Rouhani left office in 2021.