Categories
Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence

Iran Grapples with a New Strategic Reality after Assad’s Ouster

The December 2024 ousting of Bashar al-Assad marked a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics, dramatically shifting the regional balance of power. For Iran, the downfall of one of its most steadfast allies represents a significant blow to its influence in Syria and across the broader Levant. While this moment will have immediate and far-reaching consequences, Iran’s loss of Syria also underscores the weakening of Tehran’s soft and hard power in the region. Since the bloody Syrian Civil War began, Iran has used Syria to boost its so-called Axis of Resistance, capitalizing on the power vacuum in the region to flood money, men, and material to its proxies. Indeed, the Iranian-Syrian alliance was not merely geopolitical but also ideological, grounded in shared resistance against Western and Israeli influence in the region.

However, repercussions from the Israel-Gaza war have dealt a heavy blow to Lebanese Hezbollah and by extension the Assad regime, effectively dismantling this axis. Iran’s access to the Mediterranean has been severely restricted, and its ability to threaten Israel via Hezbollah is now in jeopardy. With Syria in disarray, Tehran’s ambitions to dominate the volatile region look increasingly fragile.

Continue reading “Iran Grapples with a New Strategic Reality after Assad’s Ouster”

Categories
Azerbaijani Politics Pax Caucasia

Could Iran open new fronts against Israel and Azerbaijan?

Azerbaijan and Israel Hold Talks on Regional Security and Bilateral Relations

Hikmat Hajiyev, assistant to Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, held a face-to-face meeting with Israel’s President Isaac Herzog and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar in Jerusalem on December 9. This visit surprised many as the Jewish state continues to fight on several fronts against its enemies, including Hezbollah remnants repeatedly hitting more than 300 sites in Syria in recent days.

While Hajiyev’s trip came unannounced, it also came at a very critical and specific time in light of the overthrow of Syria’s Bashar Assad following 13 years-long bloody civil war. Although analysts for many years claimed that Bashar Assad “won the civil war” with the help of Iran and Russia, he prolonged the war, giving rise to a more solidified and regrouped opposition, which ultimately kicked out Iran’s fighters and the top-flight of the Syrian regime.

Continue reading “Could Iran open new fronts against Israel and Azerbaijan?”

Categories
Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence

What Turkey Hopes to Gain From the HTS Offensive in Syria?

HTS' Julani threatens force to quell Idlib protests

Turkey’s support of the Syrian opposition not only weakens Assad but targets the Kurdish military stationed in northern Syria across the Turkish border.

Over the past several days, the main Syrian opposition force, Hayat Tahrir-al Sham (HTS), has carried out a lightning-fast offensive, pushing Syrian government troops out of the country’s second-largest city, Aleppo, and moving on to Hama.

The surprise attack exposed the weakness of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, which had survived a 2011-2016 civil war with the help of Iran and Russia. With little to no resistance from the government forces, HTS – an offshoot of al-Qaeda – and affiliated groups were able to seize control over Aleppo within a day and Hama shortly afterward.

Continue reading “What Turkey Hopes to Gain From the HTS Offensive in Syria?”

Categories
Oil / Natural Gas / Green Energy

European countries plan hydrogen import infrastructure to achieve climate goals

Hydrogen exports to shift to ammonia production by 2035

In light of global warming, resource extinction, natural disasters, and frequent heated debates on climate action in the West, hydrogen is the hope for achieving ambitious climate goals. Whether used in fuel cells to power vehicles, as a feedstock in industrial processes, or as an energy carrier to store and transport renewable energy, hydrogen offers solutions to decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors.

Indeed, hydrogen as an energy carrier has properties that are important for a reliable energy system, such as easy transport and storage capability. Moreover, hydrogen can replace fossil fuels to drastically reduce emissions in industries such as steelmaking and chemicals, where electrification is difficult.

Consequently, given hydrogen’s huge potential for energy transition, many European countries are keen on exploring ways of importing it.

Continue reading “European countries plan hydrogen import infrastructure to achieve climate goals”

Categories
Azerbaijani Politics Oil / Natural Gas / Green Energy

Will COP29 become a milestone in Azerbaijan’s long-term energy strategy?

COP29 çərçivəsində “SOCAR Green” və “PowerChina” şirkətləri arasında Anlaşma Memorandumu imzalanıb | Şərq qapısı

Despite its heavy reliance on fossil fuel exports for many years, Azerbaijan has now shifted its long-term energy strategy by steadily switching to renewable energy sources.

Thus, the 29th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) in Baku became a vital platform for Azerbaijan’s main energy giant SOCAR and its affiliate SOCAR Green LLC (established in December 2023) to ink new agreements with countries and companies in the field of green energy, smart technologies and decarbonisation.

Focus on gas

It is noteworthy that SOCAR started supplying North Macedonia with natural gas on November 15, while Azerbaijan was hosting the major climate event on its soil. Considering that natural gas is the cleanest fossil fuel, in contrast to crude oil, Baku did not hesitate to announce the new partnership during COP29.

Continue reading “Will COP29 become a milestone in Azerbaijan’s long-term energy strategy?”

Categories
Azerbaijani Politics Iran in Caucasus and Beyond Karabakh in the Post-War Period South Caucasus Region

New Azerbaijan-Iran Railway Agreement Grapples With Regional Tensions

News

Executive Summary:

  • In October, Azerbaijani and Iranian officials discussed the Aras Corridor railway project, a strategic alternative to the contested Zangezur Corridor, amid ongoing Azerbaijan-Armenia tensions and diplomatic efforts to enhance regional connectivity following the 2020 Karabakh War.
  • The Aras Corridor strengthens Azerbaijan–Türkiye–Central Asia ties and aligns with Iran’s International North-South Transportation Corridor, enhancing regional connectivity and trade routes toward Russia.
  • Azerbaijan’s focus on the Aras Corridor reflects regional tensions, including opposition to the Zangezur Corridor, Iran-Israel conflicts, and Russia’s war against Ukraine. The project highlights Azerbaijan’s strategy of adapting to navigate shifting alliances and maintain regional goals.

On October 15, Chairman of Azerbaijan Railways Rovshan Rustamov arrived in Tehran to meet his Iranian counterpart Jabbar Ali Zakeri Sardroudi to discuss the construction of a railway line linking Azerbaijan’s East Zangezur region and its Nakhchivan exclave through Iran (News.az, October 15). The meeting came amid intensive diplomatic negotiations between Azerbaijan and Iran regarding the Aras Corridor transit route linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and further to Türkiye via Iran after a period of silence and diplomatic rifts between the two neighbors (see EDM, March 27).

Continue reading “New Azerbaijan-Iran Railway Agreement Grapples With Regional Tensions”

Categories
MENA in Turbulence

Houthi Attacks on Merchant Vessels Force a Reckoning in the Red Sea

Deepening tensions and turbulence have gripped the Middle East, caused by the War on Gaza and the emergent Iran-Israel confrontation. The security situation in the region has deteriorated, enabling other regional state and non-state actors to join the conflict. One of these prominent actors is the Yemen-based Houthi rebels, which have disrupted trade transiting the Red Sea by launching attacks on commercial vessels. Though the Houthis predicate their attacks on merchant vessels as targeting ships headed to Israel, their strikes have been more haphazard than the group’s rhetoric suggests.

Continue reading “Houthi Attacks on Merchant Vessels Force a Reckoning in the Red Sea”

Categories
Oil / Natural Gas / Green Energy

Will the renewal of the Serbia-Russia gas deal prolong Moscow’s energy dominance in Europe?

Image

Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Vulin hinted during the Eastern Economic Forum in Russian Vladivostok in September that Moscow and Belgrade need to solve issues related to the gas supply contract set to expire in 2025. Despite Western sanctions, Russia still plays a crucial role in supplying Serbia with natural gas “on time and based on very good conditions”, the Serbian minister said.

Although the continuing Russian gas supplies to Europe pose a serious dilemma within the region, some EU member countries like Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, and non-members like Serbia do not hesitate to maintain energy partnerships with Moscow.

Continue reading “Will the renewal of the Serbia-Russia gas deal prolong Moscow’s energy dominance in Europe?”

Categories
South Caucasus Region Transit Routes in Eurasia

Azerbaijan Railways releases the first ever public transport sustainability report for a major corporation

Azerbaijan Railways releases the republic's first ever sustainability report for a major corporation

As COP29 approaches, Azerbaijan Railways (ADY) released the first-ever sustainability report by a major state-owned corporation at an event in Baku on October 23.

The company released its “Sustainable Transport for the Future” report on the sustainable achievements of the company CJSC in the fields of environment, social, and management. The event’s main topic was the work done to achieve the decarbonization goals of sustainable transport in Azerbaijan, especially railways, with the application of green innovations and advanced digital solutions, and the steps to be taken in this direction.

Continue reading “Azerbaijan Railways releases the first ever public transport sustainability report for a major corporation”

Categories
Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence

US Supply of Heavy Weapons to the KRG Worries Baghdad

The U.S. supply to Iraqi Kurdistan reflects a desire by Washington to maintain a long-term presence in the area beyond the withdrawal of U.S. forces from central Iraq next year.

Iraqi mass media confirmed recently that the Biden administration had delivered heavy artillery to the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) despite objections from Iraqi authorities in Baghdad.

The U.S. called the delivery of two dozen 105 mm M119 howitzers to the KRG a “long-planned transfer” meant to build capacity for Kurdish Peshmerga forces. But in Baghdad, there were calls from some to seize the artillery and concern that the new U.S. support could exacerbate already tense relations between Baghdad and Erbil, threatening efforts by Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani to improve ties with the KRG and preserve good relations with Washington despite the anticipated withdrawal of U.S. troops from central Iraq next year.

Continue reading “US Supply of Heavy Weapons to the KRG Worries Baghdad”