Category: Azerbaijani Politics

Categories
Azerbaijani Politics Iran in Caucasus and Beyond South Caucasus Region

Türkiye and Azerbaijan Contend With Potential Kurdish Role in Iran Conflict

Azerbaijan hosts joint drills with Turkey near Armenia - International - World - Ahram Online

Executive Summary:

  • Ankara has signaled from the outset of the Iran conflict that it would consider military intervention in northern Iraq’s Kurdistan region should a Kurdish-led insurgency materialize.
  • Türkiye views potential Kurdish militancy in Iran as a direct national security threat, strongly opposes any armed Kurdish role, and has signaled it could consider intervention to prevent Kurdish cross-border insurgency and regional destabilization.
  • Azerbaijan fears Kurdish involvement in the Iran conflict could destabilize Iran’s northwest, inflaming ethnic tensions and endangering Azerbaijani minorities in the region along with regional connectivity drives. Ankara and Baku coordinate diplomatically and militarily to contain spillover risks.

Washington and Tel Aviv reportedly considered providing political and logistical support for Iranian Kurdish militant groups along the Iran–Iraq border in the first week or two of their conflict with Iran (Future War Magazine, March 26; The Times of Israel, March 29). The plan was abandoned in late March because of regional diplomatic pressure, Tehran’s military strikes on Kurdish regions of Iran and Iraq, Iran’s intelligence crackdown, inconsistent support from the United States and Israel, and media leaks. The potential involvement of Kurdish militias in the Iran conflict could draw more regional states into the conflict, particularly Türkiye, which has expressed clear opposition to any armed Kurdish role in Iran (Amwaj, March 25).

Continue reading “Türkiye and Azerbaijan Contend With Potential Kurdish Role in Iran Conflict”

Categories
Azerbaijani Politics Iran in Caucasus and Beyond South Caucasus Region

Will the Caspian Region Be Drawn Into the Iran War?

Photo: Navy ships of Iran and Azerbaijan move during an exercise between Iran and Azerbaijan in the Caspian Sea, Iran, in this picture obtained on November 4, 2024. Credit: Iranian Army/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS

Of the more than 12,000 Iranian sites targeted by the US and Israel, the strikes against an obscure Caspian Sea naval base seemed at first sight one of the oddest.

Israel said it hit dozens of targets, including warships, a command post, a shipyard, and port infrastructure at Bandar Anzali on March 18.

The operation marked the first-ever missile attack in the Caspian Sea. While the port is not the primary base of the Caspian Flotilla, also known as the Northern Fleet, it was likely a dispersal base for military units.

The aim? To strike at the Iranian-Russian military trade across the Caspian Sea, the Wall Street Journal reported. The route’s importance has been growing since Russia launched its all-out war on Ukraine four years ago, and now involves the shipment of key military items, including drones based on the Shahed design.

Continue reading “Will the Caspian Region Be Drawn Into the Iran War?”

Categories
Azerbaijani Politics MENA in Turbulence South Caucasus Region

The Caucasus Front: Azerbaijan and Iran in the Expanding Gulf War

On March 5, 2026, two drones launched by Iran struck Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave, damaging Nakhchivan International Airport and a nearby school building while injuring several bystanders. The South Caucasus, particularly Azerbaijan and Iran’s border regions, have recently experienced unprecedented escalation following the U.S.-Israeli military operation against Iran, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury.” Although Azerbaijan has remained neutral since the war’s onset, Baku has voiced growing concerns about the conflict’s potential repercussions for the wider region.

Continue reading “The Caucasus Front: Azerbaijan and Iran in the Expanding Gulf War”

Categories
Azerbaijani Politics Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence South Caucasus Region

Azerbaijan Seeks to Balance Ties with Israel, Turkey & Iran

Ilham Aliyev participated in panel session on “Defining Eurasia's Economic Identity” in Davos » Official web-site of President of Azerbaijan Republic
Azerbaijan is watching rising unrest in neighboring Iran and the prospect of new Israeli or American strikes on that country with concern

A late January visit by Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar to Baku, where he met with President Ilham Aliyev and Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, was framed by Azerbaijani state media as a significant event reflecting Azerbaijan’s growing authority within regional and global security frameworks.

Israel and Azerbaijan have a long-standing strategic partnership, and the inclusion of a large business delegation underscored Israel’s intent to expand economic cooperation with Azerbaijan, likely through joint projects in energy and infrastructure, especially in the formerly war-torn Karabakh region.

Continue reading “Azerbaijan Seeks to Balance Ties with Israel, Turkey & Iran”

Categories
Azerbaijani Politics MENA in Turbulence South Caucasus Region

Azerbaijan hedges as crisis worsens in neighbouring Iran

Azerbaijan-Iran relations: from the past to the future | Ereforms.gov.az

As Iran faces violent anti-governmental protests across major cities, officials across the border in Azerbaijan have refrained from commenting. Yet the unrest raises questions over whether Baku’s long-standing policy of non-interference would survive a potential collapse of the Islamic Republic.

Like Iran’s other near neighbours Armenia, Russia and Turkey, Azerbaijan has adopted a cautious stance, avoiding condemning Tehran’s violent suppression of dissent. This contrasts with the Western countries, whose diplomatic statements are filled with an anti-Iranian regime narrative, providing support to protesters.

Continue reading “Azerbaijan hedges as crisis worsens in neighbouring Iran”

Categories
Azerbaijani Politics South Caucasus Region

Russia’s Exclusion from Joint Caspian Drills Shows Regional Shift

Azerbaijan Navy delegation attends SEAFUTURE 2025 International Exhibition (PHOTO)

Executive Summary:

  • Russia’s influence in the Caspian Sea littoral has declined since 2020 due to Moscow’s war against Ukraine diminishing Russian resources and international standing, regional conflicts and reordering, and the growing navies of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Iran.
  • Türkiye has been instrumental in helping Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan modernize their navies, including shipbuilding partnerships and joint exercises, strengthening Ankara’s influence in the Caspian and South Caucasus.
  • Regional states are diversifying their military alliances, conducting joint military drills, and capitalizing on Russia’s declining leverage, while Russia seeks closer ties with Iran to maintain its influence in the Caspian Sea region.

On October 25, Azerbaijan participated in the Nusret-2025 Invitation Exercise, a joint military drill held in the Gulf of Soros in Türkiye. The exercise aimed to strengthen cooperation between the Turkish Naval Forces and the naval forces of friendly and allied countries, such as Azerbaijan (Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan; News.az, October 25). This is the latest example of Azerbaijan’s partnership with Türkiye in strengthening its naval forces. The Caucasus region, particularly the Caspian littoral, is emerging as a focal point of geopolitical competition amid rising tensions between Russia and the West. The Caspian, often referred to as a “Russian lake” during the Soviet era, has presented new challenges to Russia’s regional dominance since 2022. Until the 2020s, Russia remained the most powerful naval power in the Caspian Sea, despite Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Iran systematically enhancing their naval capabilities over the past three decades (see Strategic Snapshot, August 24).

Continue reading “Russia’s Exclusion from Joint Caspian Drills Shows Regional Shift”

Categories
Azerbaijani Politics Oil / Natural Gas / Green Energy Russia in Caucasus South Caucasus Region

Russia — Ukraine’s Accidental Matchmaker

Photo: Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev leave after a state reception at the Gulustan Palace in Baku, Azerbaijan August 19, 2024. Credit: Sputnik/Mikhail Tereshchenko/Pool via REUTERS

Russian drones attacked an oil depot in Odesa in Ukraine on August 17. That’s not unusual, but that night’s target was notable in one important sense — the Kremlin struck high-profile infrastructure owned by SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state oil company.

This was no accident. Russia had attacked the same SOCAR facility in Ukraine on August 8. Taken together with a series of other events, it has become clear that Putin’s men are sending a message. That comes at some risk to themselves and potential benefits for Ukraine.

These weren’t the first or even the most serious Russian acts of hostility against the energy-rich South Caucasian nation.  On Christmas Day, Russian missile batteries shot down a scheduled Azerbaijan Airways plane, killing 38 people. The incident caused uproar, not least because while the missile firing may have resulted from mistaken identity, Russian air controllers refused the badly damaged aircraft permission to land.

Continue reading “Russia — Ukraine’s Accidental Matchmaker”

Categories
Azerbaijani Politics Iran in Caucasus and Beyond Karabakh in the Post-War Period South Caucasus Region

The Armenia-Azerbaijan Accord: A Catastrophe for Iran?

On August 8, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan gathered in Washington, D.C. to sign a historic U.S.-brokered peace accord in the presence of President Donald Trump. What was not included in the ink of the accord was any reference to the new geopolitical order in the South Caucasus that it cemented by capitalizing on the waning influence of Russia and Iran.  One of the key elements of the new deal includes the creation of a highly profitable strategic trade corridor that passes through both countries, making cross-border trade after decades of violent conflict. The route will run through the southern territories of Azerbaijan and Armenia, giving the former a direct land route with Turkey through its Nakhchivan exclave.

Continue reading “The Armenia-Azerbaijan Accord: A Catastrophe for Iran?”

Categories
Azerbaijani Politics Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence South Caucasus Region

Israel War Erodes Iran’s Relations with Azerbaijan

President Ilham Aliyev, President Masoud Pezeshkian hold phone talk
Iranian officials probe Israel’s alleged use of Azerbaijani airspace to hit Iranian targets

The 12-day Israel-Iran war revealed new vulnerabilities in the Islamic Republic and increased tensions between Iran and its neighbor, Azerbaijan.

In the aftermath of the strategic setback to Iranian nuclear and military facilities, Iran’s conservative political and security establishment began shifting focus toward perceived “close enemies” said to be complicit in the Israeli attacks. Among the primary targets of this narrative has been Iran’s northern neighbor, Azerbaijan, which Iranian state-run media and channels affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) accused of providing “intelligence support to Israel” during the strikes on nuclear, military, and civilian sites.

Continue reading “Israel War Erodes Iran’s Relations with Azerbaijan”

Categories
Azerbaijani Politics Central Asia I China I Russia

Kazakhstan Aims to Modernize Military Through Multivector Diplomacy

Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan to hold joint naval drills ‘Caspian Wind-2025’ in Aktau
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 22 Issue:

Executive Summary:

  • In response to shifting regional dynamics primarily driven by Russia’s war against Ukraine, Kazakhstan is reshaping its security posture by reducing military dependence on Moscow and prioritizing self-reliance, regional partnerships, and defense modernization.
  • Astana is focusing on its role as a “middle power,” allowing Kazakhstan to exert greater regional and global influence through integration into multilateral organizations, expanded participation in international initiatives, and diversified defense imports.
  • Kazakhstan has pursued diverse international military collaborations, particularly through joint exercises, weapons co-production, and strategic coordination with Türkiye and Azerbaijan, enabling it to adopt a more independent defense strategy.

Kazakhstan has recently been making steps to improve its defense capabilities. In April 2025, the Kazakh Ministry of Defense confirmed that a legislative framework was established to regulate the Defense Industry Development Fund, which was created in December 2023 (Prime Minister of Kazakhstan, April 14; Inform.kz, April 16). The new defense fund aims to acquire and manufacture domestically crucial military hardware, such as artillery ammunition, weapons systems, and combat modules.

Continue reading “Kazakhstan Aims to Modernize Military Through Multivector Diplomacy”