Category: South Caucasus Region

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Azerbaijani Politics Pax Caucasia

Could Iran open new fronts against Israel and Azerbaijan?

Azerbaijan and Israel Hold Talks on Regional Security and Bilateral RelationsHikmet Hajiyev discusses bilateral ties with Israeli President Isaac Herzog

Hikmat Hajiyev, assistant to Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, held a face-to-face meeting with Israel’s President Isaac Herzog and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar in Jerusalem on December 9. This visit surprised many as the Jewish state continues to fight on several fronts against its enemies, including Hezbollah remnants repeatedly hitting more than 300 sites in Syria in recent days.

While Hajiyev’s trip came unannounced, it also came at a very critical and specific time in light of the overthrow of Syria’s Bashar Assad following 13 years-long bloody civil war. Although analysts for many years claimed that Bashar Assad “won the civil war” with the help of Iran and Russia, he prolonged the war, giving rise to a more solidified and regrouped opposition, which ultimately kicked out Iran’s fighters and the top-flight of the Syrian regime.

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Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence

What Turkey Hopes to Gain From the HTS Offensive in Syria?

HTS' Julani threatens force to quell Idlib protests

Turkey’s support of the Syrian opposition not only weakens Assad but targets the Kurdish military stationed in northern Syria across the Turkish border.

Over the past several days, the main Syrian opposition force, Hayat Tahrir-al Sham (HTS), has carried out a lightning-fast offensive, pushing Syrian government troops out of the country’s second-largest city, Aleppo, and moving on to Hama.

The surprise attack exposed the weakness of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, which had survived a 2011-2016 civil war with the help of Iran and Russia. With little to no resistance from the government forces, HTS – an offshoot of al-Qaeda – and affiliated groups were able to seize control over Aleppo within a day and Hama shortly afterward.

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Azerbaijani Politics Oil / Natural Gas / Green Energy

Will COP29 become a milestone in Azerbaijan’s long-term energy strategy?

COP29 çərçivəsində “SOCAR Green” və “PowerChina” şirkətləri arasında Anlaşma Memorandumu imzalanıb | Şərq qapısı

Despite its heavy reliance on fossil fuel exports for many years, Azerbaijan has now shifted its long-term energy strategy by steadily switching to renewable energy sources.

Thus, the 29th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) in Baku became a vital platform for Azerbaijan’s main energy giant SOCAR and its affiliate SOCAR Green LLC (established in December 2023) to ink new agreements with countries and companies in the field of green energy, smart technologies and decarbonisation.

Focus on gas

It is noteworthy that SOCAR started supplying North Macedonia with natural gas on November 15, while Azerbaijan was hosting the major climate event on its soil. Considering that natural gas is the cleanest fossil fuel, in contrast to crude oil, Baku did not hesitate to announce the new partnership during COP29.

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Azerbaijani Politics Iran in Caucasus and Beyond Karabakh in the Post-War Period South Caucasus Region

New Azerbaijan-Iran Railway Agreement Grapples With Regional Tensions

News

Executive Summary:

  • In October, Azerbaijani and Iranian officials discussed the Aras Corridor railway project, a strategic alternative to the contested Zangezur Corridor, amid ongoing Azerbaijan-Armenia tensions and diplomatic efforts to enhance regional connectivity following the 2020 Karabakh War.
  • The Aras Corridor strengthens Azerbaijan–Türkiye–Central Asia ties and aligns with Iran’s International North-South Transportation Corridor, enhancing regional connectivity and trade routes toward Russia.
  • Azerbaijan’s focus on the Aras Corridor reflects regional tensions, including opposition to the Zangezur Corridor, Iran-Israel conflicts, and Russia’s war against Ukraine. The project highlights Azerbaijan’s strategy of adapting to navigate shifting alliances and maintain regional goals.

On October 15, Chairman of Azerbaijan Railways Rovshan Rustamov arrived in Tehran to meet his Iranian counterpart Jabbar Ali Zakeri Sardroudi to discuss the construction of a railway line linking Azerbaijan’s East Zangezur region and its Nakhchivan exclave through Iran (News.az, October 15). The meeting came amid intensive diplomatic negotiations between Azerbaijan and Iran regarding the Aras Corridor transit route linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and further to Türkiye via Iran after a period of silence and diplomatic rifts between the two neighbors (see EDM, March 27).

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South Caucasus Region Transit Routes in Eurasia

Azerbaijan Railways releases the first ever public transport sustainability report for a major corporation

Azerbaijan Railways releases the republic's first ever sustainability report for a major corporation

As COP29 approaches, Azerbaijan Railways (ADY) released the first-ever sustainability report by a major state-owned corporation at an event in Baku on October 23.

The company released its “Sustainable Transport for the Future” report on the sustainable achievements of the company CJSC in the fields of environment, social, and management. The event’s main topic was the work done to achieve the decarbonization goals of sustainable transport in Azerbaijan, especially railways, with the application of green innovations and advanced digital solutions, and the steps to be taken in this direction.

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Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence

US Supply of Heavy Weapons to the KRG Worries Baghdad

The U.S. supply to Iraqi Kurdistan reflects a desire by Washington to maintain a long-term presence in the area beyond the withdrawal of U.S. forces from central Iraq next year.

Iraqi mass media confirmed recently that the Biden administration had delivered heavy artillery to the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) despite objections from Iraqi authorities in Baghdad.

The U.S. called the delivery of two dozen 105 mm M119 howitzers to the KRG a “long-planned transfer” meant to build capacity for Kurdish Peshmerga forces. But in Baghdad, there were calls from some to seize the artillery and concern that the new U.S. support could exacerbate already tense relations between Baghdad and Erbil, threatening efforts by Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani to improve ties with the KRG and preserve good relations with Washington despite the anticipated withdrawal of U.S. troops from central Iraq next year.

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Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence

Iran’s New Foreign Minister Tests the Limits of Iran’s Foreign Policy

Iran's president taps nuclear negotiator as foreign minister, woman for housing post | The Times of Israel

On August 21, the Iranian parliament confirmed Abbas Aragchi, a well-known veteran diplomat, as foreign minister upon the recommendation of the newly-elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian. A product of the foreign policy establishment, Aragchi started his diplomatic career as a political analyst within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, rising through the ranks with a particular distinction. He gained notoriety in the West as one of the top negotiators of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which placed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in favor of sanctions relief.

Following domestic unrest in Iran, punctuated by mass riots in 2022, violent terror attacks in major Iranian cities, a shrinking economy, and heavy inflation. When President Ebrahim Raisi died unexpectedly in a helicopter crash in May 2024, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei allowed reformist lawmaker Masoud Pezeshkian, an ethnic Azerbaijani, to run in presidential elections. When Pezeshkian won the July 5 vote, he became the first reformist leader since Hassan Rouhani left office in 2021.

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South Caucasus Region

Türkiye-Russia Trade Declines Amid Western Sanctions

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Vladimir Putin

Executive Summary:

  • Trade between Russia and Türkiye has dropped significantly in 2024 due to Western sanctions, indicating a weakening economic partnership as Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to isolate it from global partners.
  • Ankara is increasingly aligning with Western powers, as evidenced by the postponement of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visits to Ankara. This is straining Turkish-Russian relations.
  • Türkiye remains a key importer of Russian energy, despite improving ties with the West, with a notable increase in fuel imports and its participation in re-exporting Russian oil products to Europe.
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Azerbaijani Politics MENA in Turbulence South Caucasus Region

Can Turkey Undercut Israel’s Alliance with Azerbaijan Over the Gaza War?

Azerbaijan has built strong partnerships with Israel in energy and defense for the last two decades despite also maintaining ties with Turkey and Iran

The impact of the geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East stemming from the ongoing Israel–Hamas war extends far beyond the region.

Since Hamas’s brutal October 7 terror attack on southern Israel, Israeli forces have conducted large-scale military operations in Gaza to try to destroy Hamas and armed radicals affiliated with the militant Palestinian group. Although many countries in Europe and Asia voiced support for Israel at least initially, others have tried to remain neutral, while countries such as Iran, Russia, Turkey, Ireland, and Spain have blamed Israel for the excessive use of force in Gaza and disregard of civilian lives.

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MENA in Turbulence Russia in Caucasus Transit Routes in Eurasia

Türkiye Demonstrates Increased Interest in BRICS Membership

Turkey wants to join BRICS - ảnh 1

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 21 Issue: 100
Executive Summary:
  •  In June, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss, among other issues, Türkiye’s prospective membership in the loose-economic grouping of BRICS, which Putin “fully supports.”
  • The impetus for BRICS expansion has grown significantly amid Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with Moscow and Beijing promoting it as a critical counterweight to US and Western influence.
  • Türkiye’s pursuit of BRICS membership looks to promote foreign investment, increased market access, and economic growth and reflects a foreign policy tradition of balancing between regional powers.

On June 11, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attended a session of the BRICS group (a loose political-economic grouping originally consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) in Moscow. While there, he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu (Turkish Foreign Ministry, June 11). During the face-to-face meeting with Putin, Fidan discussed bilateral economic and political relations, focusing on the geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East caused by the war in Gaza (Al-Monitor, June 16). Putin vowed to “fully support” Turkish membership in BRICS and build stronger ties to facilitate further economic cooperation.

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