Russia and Belarus held joint military drills in September. But the biennial exercises were overshadowed by something that may be more ominous — an outbreak of drone and aerial incursions across Poland and the Nordic-Baltic states that illustrate NATO members’ vulnerability to disabling attacks on fragile systems like civil airports.
Zapad-2025 is a well-established Kremlin method of showcasing its military capabilities to its near-neighbors. The official reason for September’s large-scale exercises is to test the ability of the two countries to repel an enemy attack, retake lost territory, and secure the borders of what they refer to as their “Union State.”
They have often triggered alarm across the NATO alliance, particularly in the Baltic states and Poland, which have a deep historical and recent sensitivity to Kremlin aggression.
While Zapad-2025 is intended as a high-profile demonstration of Russian-Belarusian operational capacity to invade their neighbors, using conventional and nuclear-capable forces, the intent behind the airspace incursions was less clear.
These have become a daily occurrence (on the night of September 30, for example, unidentified drones were reported at a Norwegian airport and a Swedish airport.). There was a large-scale military drone incursion into Poland on September 10 and subsequently Romania, swiftly followed by the entry of three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets into Estonian airspace. Numerous unattributed drone flights have been recorded in Nordic nations since then, notably the September 22 “attack” that closed off Copenhagen airport, the region’s busiest.
Russia has not been blamed for all the incursions, but that is the point of shadow warfare. The targets understand who is behind it (Denmark has indicated its belief that Russia is to blame, attributing it to a “professional actor”), but cannot immediately show the evidence. Meanwhile, the disruption is enormous, the victim looks impotent, and trust in government can be damaged.
Russia’s integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) into its hybrid warfare strategy highlights its improved drone technology, which is also making an impact on the battlefields of Ukraine. Despite multiple economic sanctions, Russia has been able to upgrade navigation and control systems, often with the aid of China, making the current generation deadlier and more capable than its predecessors.
Debates in and between NATO capitals on how best to respond to the new wave of Russian aggression resulted in a decision to bolster the alliance’s eastern flank with counter-drone units and fighter jets.
The Kremlin used the Zapad-2025 drills to indicate its high-end capabilities, too. They included strategic forces in the shape of Tu-22M3 bombers. The Kremlin wanted to send a message that its long-range aviation is still combat-ready despite Kyiv’s devastating operation in June, which destroyed a considerable chunk of Moscow’s strategic aircraft. Although they were much smaller than the joint exercises in 2021, just before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Zapad fits the pattern of Russia raising tensions along NATO’s eastern flank
The drills came a year after Belarus suspended its participation in the 1990 Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty, which was intended to limit the size of the continent’s militaries, and deployed Russian tactical nuclear weapons and hypersonic systems on its soil. Russia is meanwhile building up bases close to Finland and the Baltic states, even as the Ukraine war grinds on.
Taken together, these developments suggest Russia is opening a new chapter in its campaign of intimidation and pressure targeted at European NATO’s most steadfast and alert allies (the Nordic-Baltic Eight are also the biggest per capita contributors to Ukraine’s defense).
In response to Russia’s maneuvers, NATO partners held military drills near the Suwałki Gap — the narrow corridor on the border between Poland and Lithuania which links Belarus to Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. The area is of vital importance for the Baltic states, as it is the only land connection with the rest of NATO, and has long been regarded as a prime target for Moscow.
Although some argue the stagnating Russian economy limits its combat capabilities, there is no sign of any immediate reduction in the Kremlin’s combat power. Russia has repeatedly dismissed the effect of economic sanctions. And while Ukraine’s campaign to strike refineries and energy pipelines is having an impact, Putin and his aides seem sufficiently confident to expand their campaign.
The Kremlin is confident this combination of intimidation and hybrid operations will build a secure buffer zone near its borders and maintain its enormous influence in the post-Soviet region. It is not yet clear that NATO is capable of conjuring a decisive response.
The piece was originally published by CEPA