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MENA in Turbulence

Egypt and Saudi Arabia Construct a New Strategic Naval Axis

Joint Egyptian-Saudi training "Tabuk 5" wraps up in S. Arabia - EgyptToday
Concern over the reliability of U.S. security guarantees before Israel’s strike on Qatar facilitated the strategic rapprochement between Cairo and Riyadh.

On August 31, U.S. Central Command’s annual Bright Star drills commenced in Egypt, with the participation of the Saudi Arabian Royal Armed Forces.

The biennial exercises focused on strengthening interoperability and readiness across land, air, and maritime domains, featuring command-post training, field maneuvers with mechanized and armored units, counter-terrorism/irregular warfare scenarios, reconnaissance missions, and live-fire events.

The drills took place in an environment of escalating regional instability two years after the Hamas attacks on Israel and prior to the signing of a fragile ceasefire in Gaza. Israel had retaliated harshly against Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran after the October 7, 2023 attacks and continues military action in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen.

Concern over the reliability of U.S. security guarantees facilitated the current strategic rapprochement between Cairo and Riyadh and predate the Israeli attempt on September 9 to assassinate Hamas negotiators in Qatar – host of the biggest U.S. airbase in the region.  After the attack in Doha, the Saudis also signed a new defense pact with Pakistan, guaranteeing Islamabad’s direct military support, possibly including nuclear warheads, in case of external aggression against the kingdom.

Saudi Arabia has improved relations with Egypt that had frayed during a brief period of Muslim Brotherhood rule following the overthrow of long-time Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in 2011. Since 2013, when the Egyptian military ousted the Brotherhood government and General Abdul Fattah al-Sisi became president, Saudi Arabia has backed Egypt economically and diplomatically.

Saudi deepening of defense ties with Egypt could evolve into a new geopolitical axis reflecting a broader imperative for both to secure regional interests. Egypt, as one of the few Arab countries with a large and well-equipped military, has proposed to set up a NATO-style force in the Middle East. However, the idea, which revives a 2015 proposal for a joint force based in Cairo, got a cool reception at a recent Arab League summit in Doha. Egypt hopes to augment the informal security partnership between the U.S. and the wealthy Arab states of the Persian Gulf, which did not prevent Israel from targeting Hamas in Qatar. The Trump administration has since promised to come to Qatar’s aid against any future attack, but that commitment has yet to be tested. Saudi Arabia is reportedly seeking a similar agreement with Washington, but that may be contingent on normalizing relations with Israel, something Riyadh has been reluctant to do absent progress toward a Palestinian state.

The Gulf states’ interest in diversifying security partnerships also reflects concerns about threats in the Red Sea in light of Israel’s intensified air raids and missile strikes on Yemen and the Houthis’ retaliatory attacks on Israeli ports and urban areas. Naval cooperation and military drills are intended to serve as a deterrent to Houthi aggression in the Red Sea,  a vital choke point that handles about 12% of world trade and 30% of global container traffic and connects the Suez Canal to the Gulf of Aden via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Egypt, whose economy relies heavily on canal transit fees, and Saudi Arabia, which exports oil via the Red Sea, have been impacted by the Houthis’ attacks on commercial vessels in support of the Palestinians in Gaza. The attacks have negatively affected Egypt’s economy by deterring commercial ships from using the Suez Canal, fueling domestic discontent while boosting efforts to tackle the source of the threat. Even if the Gaza cease-fire holds, hostilities between Israel and the Houthis are likely to continue and impact commercial activity in the Red Sea.

Saudi Arabia has a long Red Sea coastline, which, in addition to oil depots, is home to mega projects that are being constructed in line with Riyadh’s ambitious Vision-2030 program. The program’s success highly depends on stability in the Red Sea basin and provides further justification for a strengthened Saudi-Egyptian military alliance.

Beyond the Saudi-Egyptian commitment, both states have boosted their partnership with Turkey, the strongest regional actor next to Israel in terms of military power. Shortly after exercises with Riyadh, on September 22, Egypt held joint naval drills with Turkey in the Mediterranean Sea for the first time in 13 years, deepening a diplomatic thaw amid rising threats. The Saudis have also held joint naval exercises with China

Egypt, the most populous Arab state, has long held a particular importance for Saudi Arabia. In addition to providing the kingdom with strategic depth along the Red Sea, Egypt offers a crucial land bridge to North Africa. The partnership with Riyadh offers Cairo financial support and energy partnerships, as well as a foothold in the Gulf’s security architecture. Therefore, Riyadh and Cairo are likely to boost their bilateral partnership in the defense field to contain spillover from the Gaza War, including potential mass relocation of Palestinians, despite a new U.S. peace plan that purports to foreclose that possibility.

Stimson Center

 

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