On March 5, 2026, two drones launched by Iran struck Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave, damaging Nakhchivan International Airport and a nearby school building while injuring several bystanders. The South Caucasus, particularly Azerbaijan and Iran’s border regions, have recently experienced unprecedented escalation following the U.S.-Israeli military operation against Iran, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury.” Although Azerbaijan has remained neutral since the war’s onset, Baku has voiced growing concerns about the conflict’s potential repercussions for the wider region.
Escalation in the Caucasus
Despite its formal neutrality, Baku’s long-standing partnership with Tel Aviv and its Charter on Strategic Partnership with Washington have complicated its diplomatic maneuvering, particularly amid frequent criticism from Iran and Turkey. The drone attack on Nakhchivan sent shockwaves through Azerbaijan, renewing bellicose rhetoric between Baku and Tehran following a period of diplomatic rapprochement in 2024. According to local state media, Iranian Arash-2 long-range drones struck the passenger terminal of Nakhchivan International Airport and landed near a school in the village of Shakarabad, injuring four civilians.
The attack took place amid a widening theater of conflict across the Middle East, as Tehran has increasingly targeted critical civilian and energy infrastructure in neighboring Gulf states, as well as U.S. military installations. From Tehran’s perspective, sustained missile and drone strikes serve an important strategic purpose: inflicting high costs on the United States and its Gulf partners. However, unlike most Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states which host U.S. military bases and therefore benefit from some level of deterrence, Azerbaijan has historically rejected hosting foreign troops to avoid antagonizing neighboring countries, leaving it comparatively more exposed to the spillover effects of the war.
The Expanding Theater of Conflict
The recent drone attack on Nakhchivan may signal Tehran’s attempt to target all partners of the United States and Israel and open a second front in the north, potentially drawing Western attention toward the South Caucasus and Caspian Basin. Such a move could extend the war into Iran’s northwestern territories, which are predominantly inhabited by ethnic Azerbaijanis, complicating offensive operations for Washington and Tel Aviv to defend another partner on Iran’s borders. Although Iranian authorities swiftly denied involvement in the drone incident, President Ilham Aliyev’s forceful response during an emergency session of Azerbaijan’s Security Council underscored rising tensions between the two countries.
On one hand, the drone strike may reflect inadequate coordination between Iran’s political leadership and the regime’s principal power base, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), at a time when Tehran is adjusting to the assassination of senior Iranian leaders. On the other hand, the attack may represent a continuation of Tehran’s uncompromising posture toward the region since the onset of the conflict, as evidenced by its strikes against neighboring states aligned with the West.
Iran’s missile attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery and energy facilities in Qatar, including Ras Laffan, forced Doha to temporarily halt its LNG production. Iranian drones also struck the U.S. consulate in Dubai and the CIA headquarters in Riyadh, while an Amazon Web Services data center in the UAE lost power after being hit by Iranian munitions. The attacks appear intended to demonstrate that sustained strikes on Gulf infrastructure can impose long-term economic costs on the United States and its regional allies. Strikes on Azerbaijan, by contrast, are unlikely to exert significant pressure on Washington.
Azerbaijan in the Crosshairs
Azerbaijan has long been regarded by Iran as a legitimate target due to its strategic partnership with Israel. This relationship has fueled persistent, though largely unsubstantiated, speculation about the presence of Israeli military bases in Azerbaijan. Following the drone incident in Nakhchivan, Azerbaijani authorities evacuated all diplomatic staff from Iran, including consulate personnel in Iran’s East Azerbaijani province. Baku also instructed its military “to prepare and carry out retaliatory measures” and “be ready to conduct any operation.”
Baku’s confrontational stance toward Tehran at this stage appears rational, given the latter’s frequent threats against its northern neighbor, which have fueled diplomatic tensions since 2022. By 2026, these threats had intensified as IRGC-affiliated state media, namely Fars News Agency and Tasnim News, published extensively on Azerbaijan’s role in Israel’s energy security, asserting that Baku had “gradually transformed Azerbaijan into part of the security chain of the Zionist regime.” From the IRGC’s perspective, Azerbaijan’s strategic partnership with Israel has placed Baku squarely in Tehran’s crosshairs.
Some online resources went so far as to claim that, in the early days of the war, “Tehran was bombed from the Baku direction.” Although there is little evidence to support such claims, this rhetoric has heightened Azerbaijani concerns that Tehran could target the country’s oil and gas infrastructure, with potentially severe consequences for both Azerbaijan’s economy and European energy consumers.
Given current circumstances, a diplomatic rapprochement between Baku and Tehran appears unlikely, particularly amid the war’s critical stage, mounting domestic instability, and the emergence of a new Supreme Leader. More troubling for Azerbaijan, the deepening crisis in Iran could consolidate authority in Tehran among a smaller and more hawkish circle of hardliners. In the worst-case scenario, the complete collapse of the Iranian regime could trigger an unprecedented regional power vacuum, carrying profound implications for Azerbaijan and its Western partners. None of these outcomes serves Baku’s interest. For the time being, Azerbaijani leaders appear intent on weathering the crisis while avoiding steps that might further escalate tensions.