Executive Summary:
- Ankara has signaled from the outset of the Iran conflict that it would consider military intervention in northern Iraq’s Kurdistan region should a Kurdish-led insurgency materialize.
- Türkiye views potential Kurdish militancy in Iran as a direct national security threat, strongly opposes any armed Kurdish role, and has signaled it could consider intervention to prevent Kurdish cross-border insurgency and regional destabilization.
- Azerbaijan fears Kurdish involvement in the Iran conflict could destabilize Iran’s northwest, inflaming ethnic tensions and endangering Azerbaijani minorities in the region along with regional connectivity drives. Ankara and Baku coordinate diplomatically and militarily to contain spillover risks.
Washington and Tel Aviv reportedly considered providing political and logistical support for Iranian Kurdish militant groups along the Iran–Iraq border in the first week or two of their conflict with Iran (Future War Magazine, March 26; The Times of Israel, March 29). The plan was abandoned in late March because of regional diplomatic pressure, Tehran’s military strikes on Kurdish regions of Iran and Iraq, Iran’s intelligence crackdown, inconsistent support from the United States and Israel, and media leaks. The potential involvement of Kurdish militias in the Iran conflict could draw more regional states into the conflict, particularly Türkiye, which has expressed clear opposition to any armed Kurdish role in Iran (Amwaj, March 25).