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Azerbaijani Politics South Caucasus Region

Azerbaijan: From a Country with Soviet-Era Industry to a Weapons Exporter

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Post date 27/04/2017
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Since the 2000s, Azerbaijan has significantly improved its defense industry to the point where it now exports locally produced weapons to countries like Russia and the US. A large part of the country’s military development could be attributed to Israel.

Since regaining its independence in 1991, Azerbaijan set a target to increase the capability of its Armed Forces. Being a former Soviet country with an outdated industry, Azerbaijan has significantly developed and diversified its military industry since the end of the first Nagorno-Karabakh war. Throughout these years, Azerbaijan has done a lot to acquire international experience in the military industry.

Tags Azerbaijan Defense Industry Fuad Shahbazov, Israel Defense Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani Politics South Caucasus Region Transit Routes in Eurasia

Baku-Beijing Relations and China’s Growing Interest in the South Caucasus

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Post date 12/04/2017
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Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 51

This past January, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev attended a session on “The Silk Road Effect” at the 2017 World Economic Forum in Davos, alongside Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili (President.az, January 19). Presumably, the intention of both leaders was to promote the importance of the new China-led “Silk Road Economic Belt” project and its role in the future development of the economy and infrastructure in the South Caucasus. As a source of and as a transit corridor for strategic global resources such as oil and natural gas, as well as the intersection of important transportation routes between the East and West as well as the North and South, the South Caucasus holds great geostrategic importance. While a relatively low priority for China during the early 2000s, more recently the South Caucasus has become an area of great interest as an extension of the highly ambitious Chinese Silk Road project, which aims to connect Europe and East Asia via new roads and railways across the Eurasian landmass. But China’s real connection with the region will likely come when the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars (BTK) railway is finally completed. The railroad and its connection to Chinese Silk Road transit corridors further east will facilitate China’s ability to ship goods westward across the South Caucasus isthmus and, more generally, boost trade opportunities in the region. The agreement for the railway connection was signed in 2005, during President Aliyev’s first visit to Beijing.

Tags Azerbaijan China BRI, Baku Beijin relations

Karabakh in the Post-War Period South Caucasus Region

Karabakh: Diplomatic Attention Needed to Address Growing Risks

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Post date 10/03/2017
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A recent flare-up of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh highlights a growing risk of renewed, full-fledged warfare between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

On February 25, clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces marked the most intense fighting since early April of 2016, when several hundred soldiers on both sides were killed. According to Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry, the February clashes were caused by Armenian troops, allied with the region’s separatist forces, who attempted an incursion in the Khojavand-Fizuli sector of the Karabakh frontline, known as the line of contact. Five Azerbaijani soldiers were killed, including a major and a senior lieutenant, and ongoing skirmishes made it difficult to collect their bodies from the neutral zone; it took two days for the Azerbaijani side to retrieve them.

Tags Karabakh Azerbaijan Armenia Fuad Shahbazov

Central Asia I China I Russia Transit Routes in Eurasia

China’s Long March into Central Asia: How Beijing Expands Military Influence in Tajikistan

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Post date 21/02/2017
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Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Tajik counterpart Emomali Rahmon attend the groundbreaking ceremony of the Tajikistan section of Line-D of the Central Asia-China gas pipelines in Dushanbe, capital of Tajikistan, on September 13 (HUANG JINGWEN)

China’s gradually increasing economic role in Central Asia since the early 2000s is unsurprising considering the region’s geographic proximity to China’s dynamic economy. In this context, Beijing has carefully shaped a military strategy in the region, particularly in neighboring Tajikistan. In September 2016, Beijing offered to finance and build several outposts and other military facilities (in addition to the Gulhan post, which was opened in 2012) to beef up Tajikistan’s defense capabilities along its border with Afghanistan, whereas China’s and Tajikistan’s militaries performed a large counter-terrorism exercise in October 2016. These unexpected actions have raised concerns in Russia over rising Chinese influence in Tajikistan.

Azerbaijani Politics

The case of Lapshin: How it will affect Azerbaijan – Israel partnership?

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Post date 09/02/2017
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Alexander Lapshin in Baku (Photo Credit: RIA Novosti)

On the 8^th of February of 2017, a plane carrying Russian travel-blogger Alexander Lapshin landed at Baku International Airport. Alexander Lapshin, who was detained in Belarus a month ago at the request of Azerbaijan, is charged with violating the country’s legislation by illegally visiting the occupied Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Reportedly, Alexander Lapshin, who illegally traveled to Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2011, and 2012, presented Azerbaijan’s Nagorno-Karabakh as an “independent state” on his social media account and supported the “independence” of the unrecognized regime. The Supreme Court of Belarus on Tuesday upheld a government decision to extradite the blogger to Azerbaijan, which raised a huge outrage in Armenian mass media.

Tags Lapshin in Baku Fuad Shahbazov

Central Asia I China I Russia

Will Central Asia Fight Over Water Resources?

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Post date 06/02/2017
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Water has always been a major cause of wars and border conflicts in the Central Asian region. For being one of the greatest geographical regions, Central Asia has limited water resources. The modern history of the region has been fueled with various ethnic and territorial clashes. Apparently, the main catalysts behind conflicts have been attempts to take control of rich water resources. The main sources of water in Central Asia are the Syr Darya and Amu Darya Rivers, mostly fed by snow- and glacier melt from the Pamir, Hindu Kush, and Tien Shan mountain ranges. The 2,200-kilometer Syr Darya originates in the Tien Shan, flows through Kyrgyzstan as the Naryn River, and combines with the Kara Darya to become the Syr Darya.

The water resource crisis is not a new phenomenon in Central Asia. With the eventual fall of the Soviet Union, the resource-sharing system is imposed on the region totally disintegrated. The root of the problem is that the main water resources in Central Asia flow from territories of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyzstan holds the rule of downstream Syr-Darya flow at the Toktogul dam, while Tajikistan re-launched the building of Rogun dam on Vakhsh River, which was then shut down due to lack of funds and strained relations with neighboring Uzbekistan. If completed, the Rogun dam will be able to ensure mountainous Tajikistan electricity, as it is in need of energy. Despite its quite favorable location in an energy-rich region, the Central Asian country faces energy-related problems.

Tags Central Asia water resources, Fuad Shahbazov Forbes

South Caucasus Region

Is the Iran – Armenia railway project an illusion?

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Post date 02/02/2017
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The construction of a railroad connecting Armenia with Iran was first promised by Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan in an address to the National Assembly (parliament) in October 2008. Financing the construction, however, was a problematic issue: while Iranian officials confirmed the commitment to build a link connecting Iran’s existing railroad network to the Armenian border, a considerably larger investment would be required to carry out the construction on the Armenian side. The estimated cost of building the Armenian section of the railroad is about $3.2 billion, which does not include the costs of land acquisition and customs duties on equipment. The project’s entire cost is on a level comparable to Armenia’s annual budget. Clearly, the lack of financial resources, as well as, necessary political willpower, also can be seen as a reason behind the non-implementation of the project.

The situation was about to change in 2015 when China repeatedly expressed its interest in the financing of the construction of the Iran – Armenia railway. Currently, Yerevan seeks deeper economic cooperation with China in various fields. Therefore, Armenia actively discusses the possibility of Chinese sponsorship of the Iran – Armenia railway project. However, nearly all official statements of Chinese and Armenian officials regarding the future of the project remained on the paper.

Tags Iran Armenia railway

Central Asia I China I Russia MENA in Turbulence

Will the ‘Troika format’ of Astana talks bring peace to Syria?

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Post date 24/01/2017
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Participants of Syria peace talks attend a meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan February 16, 2017. REUTERS/Mukhtor Kholdorbekov – RTSYZEI

On January 23, the next phase of peace talks started in the capital of Kazakhstan, Astana. Syria’s government and opposition forces are to meet in Kazakh capital Astana for the first time since the fall of Aleppo. Negotiations between the Syrian government delegation and rebel fighters, sponsored by Russia and Turkey – who have been backing different sides of the conflict – are expected to last three days.

One of the most significant points of the talks is that this time Syrian opposition is represented mainly by the militant groups, which fight in Syria, not just by secular, and political forces. Nevertheless, uncertainty prevails over all aspects of the talks – from the attendant list to the agenda of the meeting. The guarantors of the Astana talks – Turkey, Iran, and Russia are seemingly making efforts to show the effectiveness of the “Troika” format over Syrian talks. The governments of Russia, Turkey, and Iran are set to send officials from their ministers of defense and foreign affairs. The ministers are not expected to attend what is expected to be an essentially technocratic gathering.

Tags Astana talks Syria, Fuad Shahbazov Al Arabiya, Troika format Syria

Azerbaijani Politics South Caucasus Region

Azerbaijan’s Growing Military Cooperation With Pakistan

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Post date 13/01/2017
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Azerbaijan and Pakistan have a unique political relationship that has surpassed territorial boundaries and geographical distances. Pakistan was among the first states to recognize Azerbaijan’s independence following the 1991 Soviet collapse. Today, Pakistan is the only country that has not established diplomatic relations with Baku’s main foe, Armenia. The bilateral strategic cooperation between these two countries embraces the economic, cultural, political, and especially defense fields. Taking into account their close ties, the current level of military cooperation between Azerbaijan and Pakistan needs to be emphasized. While Azerbaijan’s defense industry has strategic relations with various countries, Baku has been seeking ways of expanding military cooperation with Pakistan in particular over the last years.

Tags Azerbaijan JF17, Azerbaijan Pakistan

MENA in Turbulence

Hard choice of Riyadh: How did OPEC agree on the cut of oil production?

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Post date 20/12/2016
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On November 30, OPEC secured a cut in oil production from 33.8 million barrels a day (b/d) to 32.5 million b/d. As cheap oil from the global oil glut created budgetary shortfalls in oil-producing countries across the world, the severe economic challenges facing petro-states led to this special agreement, which is OPEC’s first to cut oil output since 2008, and the first time that non-OPEC Russia will back the cartel’s cuts to prop up prices since 2001. This unexpected decision sparked a huge rally in the price of both oil and gasoline. Given the state of regional turmoil from Syria to Yemen, however, it is legitimate to ask if politics will cause the agreement to fall apart in 2017.

The agreement was designed to reduce the production in global oil markets. It was successful despite pessimistic forecasts leading up to last month’s meeting in Vienna. After all, OPEC’s April 2016 meeting, held in Doha, ended with no deal, as member countries did not reach any consensus on the level of oil production. Iran participated in private talks led by Qatar, which currently holds the OPEC presidency, but Qatar failed to get Tehran on board because Iran argued it needed to regain market share lost during years of international economic sanctions. Whereas some OPEC members such as Ecuador and Venezuela favored cutting oil production, OPEC’s September 2016 meeting, held in Algeria, also failed to achieve this goal with Libya and Nigeria appearing reluctant to cut their oil production.

Tags Fuad Shahbazov GSA OPEC, Saudi Arabia OPEC agreement