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Azerbaijani Politics

The case of Lapshin: How it will affect Azerbaijan – Israel partnership?

Alexander Lapshin in Baku (Photo Credit: RIA Novosti)
Alexander Lapshin in Baku (Photo Credit: RIA Novosti)

On the 8th of February of 2017, a plane carrying Russian travel-blogger Alexander Lapshin landed at Baku International Airport. Alexander Lapshin, who was detained in Belarus a month ago at the request of Azerbaijan, is charged with violating the country’s legislation by illegally visiting the occupied Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Reportedly, Alexander Lapshin, who illegally traveled to Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2011, and 2012, presented Azerbaijan’s Nagorno-Karabakh as an “independent state” on his social media account and supported the “independence” of the unrecognized regime. The Supreme Court of Belarus on Tuesday upheld a government decision to extradite the blogger to Azerbaijan, which raised a huge outrage in Armenian mass media.

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Central Asia I China I Russia

Will Central Asia Fight Over Water Resources?

Water has always been a major cause of wars and border conflicts in the Central Asian region. For being one of the greatest geographical regions, Central Asia has limited water resources. The modern history of the region has been fueled with various ethnic and territorial clashes. Apparently, the main catalysts behind conflicts have been attempts to take control of rich water resources. The main sources of water in Central Asia are the Syr Darya and Amu Darya Rivers, mostly fed by snow- and glacier melt from the Pamir, Hindu Kush, and Tien Shan mountain ranges. The 2,200-kilometer Syr Darya originates in the Tien Shan, flows through Kyrgyzstan as the Naryn River, and combines with the Kara Darya to become the Syr Darya.

The water resource crisis is not a new phenomenon in Central Asia. With the eventual fall of the Soviet Union, the resource-sharing system is imposed on the region totally disintegrated. The root of the problem is that the main water resources in Central Asia flow from territories of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyzstan holds the rule of downstream Syr-Darya flow at the Toktogul dam, while Tajikistan re-launched the building of Rogun dam on Vakhsh River, which was then shut down due to lack of funds and strained relations with neighboring Uzbekistan. If completed, the Rogun dam will be able to ensure mountainous Tajikistan electricity, as it is in need of energy. Despite its quite favorable location in an energy-rich region, the Central Asian country faces energy-related problems.

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South Caucasus Region

Is the Iran – Armenia railway project an illusion?

The construction of a railroad connecting Armenia with Iran was first promised by Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan in an address to the National Assembly (parliament) in October 2008. Financing the construction, however, was a problematic issue: while Iranian officials confirmed the commitment to build a link connecting Iran’s existing railroad network to the Armenian border, a considerably larger investment would be required to carry out the construction on the Armenian side. The estimated cost of building the Armenian section of the railroad is about $3.2 billion, which does not include the costs of land acquisition and customs duties on equipment. The project’s entire cost is on a level comparable to Armenia’s annual budget.  Clearly, the lack of financial resources, as well as, necessary political willpower, also can be seen as a reason behind the non-implementation of the project.

The situation was about to change in 2015 when China repeatedly expressed its interest in the financing of the construction of the Iran – Armenia railway. Currently, Yerevan seeks deeper economic cooperation with China in various fields. Therefore, Armenia actively discusses the possibility of Chinese sponsorship of the Iran – Armenia railway project. However, nearly all official statements of Chinese and Armenian officials regarding the future of the project remained on the paper.

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Central Asia I China I Russia MENA in Turbulence

Will the ‘Troika format’ of Astana talks bring peace to Syria?

Share on Twitter Share via Email Print this page Middle East Astana Talks on Syria to Continue Despite Setbacks By Daniel Schearf February 18, 2017 07:26 PM Participants of Syria peace talks attend a meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan, Feb. 16, 2017. Participants of Syria peace talks attend a meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan, Feb. 16, 2017.
Participants of Syria peace talks attend a meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan February 16, 2017. REUTERS/Mukhtor Kholdorbekov – RTSYZEI

On January 23, the next phase of peace talks started in the capital of Kazakhstan, Astana. Syria’s government and opposition forces are to meet in Kazakh capital Astana for the first time since the fall of Aleppo. Negotiations between the Syrian government delegation and rebel fighters, sponsored by Russia and Turkey – who have been backing different sides of the conflict – are expected to last three days.

One of the most significant points of the talks is that this time Syrian opposition is represented mainly by the militant groups, which fight in Syria, not just by secular, and political forces. Nevertheless, uncertainty prevails over all aspects of the talks – from the attendant list to the agenda of the meeting. The guarantors of the Astana talks – Turkey, Iran, and Russia are seemingly making efforts to show the effectiveness of the “Troika” format over Syrian talks. The governments of Russia, Turkey, and Iran are set to send officials from their ministers of defense and foreign affairs. The ministers are not expected to attend what is expected to be an essentially technocratic gathering.

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Azerbaijani Politics South Caucasus Region

Azerbaijan’s Growing Military Cooperation With Pakistan

Azerbaijan and Pakistan have a unique political relationship that has surpassed territorial boundaries and geographical distances. Pakistan was among the first states to recognize Azerbaijan’s independence following the 1991 Soviet collapse. Today, Pakistan is the only country that has not established diplomatic relations with Baku’s main foe, Armenia. The bilateral strategic cooperation between these two countries embraces the economic, cultural, political, and especially defense fields. Taking into account their close ties, the current level of military cooperation between Azerbaijan and Pakistan needs to be emphasized. While Azerbaijan’s defense industry has strategic relations with various countries, Baku has been seeking ways of expanding military cooperation with Pakistan in particular over the last years.

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MENA in Turbulence

Hard choice of Riyadh: How did OPEC agree on the cut of oil production?

On November 30, OPEC secured a cut in oil production from 33.8 million barrels a day (b/d) to 32.5 million b/d. As cheap oil from the global oil glut created budgetary shortfalls in oil-producing countries across the world, the severe economic challenges facing petro-states led to this special agreement, which is OPEC’s first to cut oil output since 2008, and the first time that non-OPEC Russia will back the cartel’s cuts to prop up prices since 2001. This unexpected decision sparked a huge rally in the price of both oil and gasoline. Given the state of regional turmoil from Syria to Yemen, however, it is legitimate to ask if politics will cause the agreement to fall apart in 2017.

The agreement was designed to reduce the production in global oil markets. It was successful despite pessimistic forecasts leading up to last month’s meeting in Vienna. After all, OPEC’s April 2016 meeting, held in Doha, ended with no deal, as member countries did not reach any consensus on the level of oil production. Iran participated in private talks led by Qatar, which currently holds the OPEC presidency, but Qatar failed to get Tehran on board because Iran argued it needed to regain market share lost during years of international economic sanctions. Whereas some OPEC members such as Ecuador and Venezuela favored cutting oil production, OPEC’s September 2016 meeting, held in Algeria, also failed to achieve this goal with Libya and Nigeria appearing reluctant to cut their oil production.

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MENA in Turbulence

Why did Turkey enter Syria?

Obviously, the liberation of the city was not problematic for the Turkish military; according to the Turkish Defense Ministry, only one FSA fighter has been killed during the “Euphrates Shield” operation. The Syrian civil war has been raging for over five years, and there are still no winners in sight. On the contrary – new actors are becoming involved in the conflict day by day – this week the Turkish army also joined the fray, by intervening in the Syrian city of Jarablus to support Free Syrian Army militants and fight against Islamic State (ISIS).

Jarablus is a vital supply line for ISIS and one of its last remaining strongholds on the border. Every actor in the Jarablus operation is fighting for its own reasons. Turkey certainly sought to weaken ISIS, which has shelled Turkish territory and carried out a series of terrorist attacks – including a suicide bombing in the southern city of Gaziantep just last weekend which killed 54 people at a wedding.

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Pax Caucasia South Caucasus Region

Why does Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Georgia strengthen military cooperation?

Agenda.ge
Agenda.ge

On 5th of May, following a private trilateral meeting in Qabala city, Azerbaijani Defence Minister, Colonel-General Zakir Hasanov, Georgian Defence Minister Tinatin Khidasheli, and Turkish National Defence Minister Ismet Yilmaz agreed to hold joint military exercises on enhancing the combat readiness of the three countries armed forces in order to achieve the further development of trilateral cooperation on regional security. Simultaneously, the trilateral military activities, which arose huge concerns in neighboring Armenia, were mainly targeted to improve trilateral coordination on the protection of oil, and natural gas pipelines, railway projects, and the upcoming New Silk Road project. The minister of defense Zakir Hasanov mentioned that new military a memorandum would occur very soon. According to him, the memorandum, which is being prepared, will be the legal base of cooperation and allow trilateral activities to enter a new stage.  Although the debates regarding the new memorandum have been delayed,  Ms. Khidasheli notes that the trilateral memorandum will be signed in the upcoming ministerial meeting in Batumi, in August of 2016.

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MENA in Turbulence

What after the Fallujah campaign?

Saba Ararsabah / AFP / Getty images
Saba Ararsabah / AFP / Getty images

The official Baghdad on the 22nd of May declared that it launched a large-scale military operation in a rebellious city of Fallujah against Islamic State militants, with the involvement of sophisticated armored vehicles, artillery, and the U.S led air forces. Apparently, the Islamic State has been holding Fallujah since 2014, and therefore the attempt to retake control of the city will be violent and grueling. Fallujah – which is located roughly 69 km west of Baghdad is one of the strategically important cities of Iraq and the first city that has fallen under the rule of the Islamic State.

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Iran in Caucasus and Beyond

How Iranian Oil Would Change the South Caucasus?

After more than a decade of negotiations, the economic sanctions against Iran were lifted in January. Iran, P5+1 countries, and the European Union agreed on the adoption of a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The JCPOA limited the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program as a quid-pro-quo for a return to the oil market. Iran’s return to global oil markets would mean a new challenge both for Europe and the South Caucasus. This paper will examine the political and economic implications of the lifting of sanctions for the South Caucasus region.

Published by BILGESAM; NO:1292; February 5, 2015