Category: South Caucasus Region

RFE/Liberty: Azerbaijan Celebrates ‘Victory,’ Armenia In Crisis After Nagorno-Karabakh Deal

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Post date 10/11/2020
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People wave the national flag and hold portraits of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and his father and predecessor Heydar as they celebrate in the streets of Baku on November 10.

Still euphoric over the capture of a vital city from Armenian forces, Azerbaijanis celebrated on the streets of Baku after a Russian-brokered deal was signed late on November 9 aimed at ending the war over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Meanwhile, Yerevan, the Armenian capital, was plunged into a political crisis over the truce. Angry crowds stormed the Armenian parliament and ransacked government buildings after Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian announced the deal on his Facebook page. As demonstrators also broke into Pashinian’s official residence, there was speculation the Armenian leader would be toppled and that the truce, along with the huge battlefield losses in and around Nagorno-Karabakh, could bring pro-Moscow Armenian nationalists back into power.

Karabakh in the Post-War Period South Caucasus Region

Fuad Shahbazov: Russia will not resist if Azerbaijan keeps territorial gains

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Post date 10/11/2020
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– A real war between Armenians and Azerbaijanis has been going on in Nagorno-Karabakh in the last 3 weeks. Russia doesn’t yet express clear support for its ally Armenia? What caused this? May we expect Russia to be an impartial mediator between the two warring parties?

The fact that Russian has not interfered in the conflict yet indicates that the current situation suits Moscow fine. Russia has always been a key actor in the conflict but largely failed to offer a real solution plan for nearly 30 years. Though, Russia sees Armenia as an important ally while dubs Azerbaijan as a strategic partner. Moscow will not resist if Azerbaijan keeps territorial gains, but it is utterly dissatisfied with Turkey’s growing role in the region. Reportedly, Azerbaijani Armed Forces had managed to liberate several substantial settlements, which cause an outcry in Yerevan itself. Therefore, the separatist forces in the Nagorno-Karabakh region and official Yerevan deliberately seek for more significant Russian mediation than ever. However, the Kremlin apprehends that Azerbaijan will not be satisfied with peace within the aforementioned conditions. So, it is expected that Russia’s pressure will likely grow on both sides to halt the escalation to strengthen its ”peacemaker image.”

Azerbaijani Politics South Caucasus Region

Tactical Reasons Behind Military Breakthrough in Karabakh Conflict

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Post date 03/11/2020
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A photo from the live-fire drills of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces’ artillery units, July 2, 2020 / Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 17 Issue: 155

Azerbaijan and Armenia have been locked in fierce fighting in Karabakh since September 27. Unlike in most previous clashes over this Armenian-occupied Azerbaijani territory, the present conflict has involved heavy and sophisticated weaponry wielded by both sides, but especially Azerbaijan’s Armed Forces. And while the ongoing violence is essentially a conventional war fought by two professional armies, the presence of new generation, hi-tech weaponry has sharply increased its destructive potential.

Videos released by the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan since the conflict began suggest that the Azerbaijani military has all along had the upper hand on the battlefield thanks to the employment of Israeli- and Turkish-produced unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), long-range missiles, and air-defense systems.

Tags Azerbaijan Armenia conflict, Russia Azerbaijan Armenia, Second Karabakh War

Karabakh in the Post-War Period South Caucasus Region

L’Azerbaïdjan bouscule les défenses arméniennes

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Post date 26/10/2020
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A serviceman of the Azerbaijani army holds the national Azerbaijani flag during its reconstruction at the dominant height near the village of Talysh, Azerbaijan.

La situation se dégrade pour les troupes arméniennes, qui ont été contraintes de céder du terrain dans le Haut-Karabakh après avoir subi d’importantes pertes. Après deux premières semaines de conflit sans gains territoriaux notables, les forces azerbaïdjanaises ont réalisé depuis la mi-octobre des avancées nettes sur le front sud de cette région séparatiste de l’Azerbaïdjan peuplée en majorité d’Arméniens.

Bakou a repris le contrôle d’une zone frontière de l’Iran, tenue jusqu’alors par l’Arménie. L’armée azerbaïdjanaise est également parvenue à progresser en direction du corridor de Latchin, voie d’accès principale entre le Haut-Karabakh et son allié arménien dans cette région montagneuse. « L’une des priorités de l’armée azerbaïdjanaise est de prendre le contrôle de cette route afin d’interrompre l’arrivée de soutien militaire arménien », explique Fuad Shahbazov, un analyste azerbaïdjanais, qui n’hésite pas à prédire une « défaite inévitable » des troupes du Haut-Karabakh si cette route devait tomber.

South Caucasus Region

“Zapad nas razočarao”: Analitičar iz Bakua za Nova.rs

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Post date 24/10/2020
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Foto: Filip Krainčanić/Nova.rs, Privatna arhiva

“Teritorija Nagorno-Karabah po međunarodnom pravu pripada Azerbejdžanu. Razočaran sam što međunarodna zajednica, na čelu sa EU, nije uradila mnogo da zaustavi sukobe na Kavkazu. Srbija je zemlja koja poštuje teritorijalni intergritet Azerbejdžana, ali mora da pazi da ne naljuti Rusiju, svog najvažnijeg partnera” u razgovoru za Nova.rs priča Fuad Šahbaz, politički analitičar iz Bakua.

Sukob u Nagorno-Karabahu koji traje već nekoliko nedelja, i u kome i Azerbejdžan i Jermenija trpe gubitke, nije ništa novo. “To je zaleđen sukob koji traje već 30 godina, jer ne postoji održiv dogovor, niti inicijativa OEBS-a, Minsk grupe, EU i Rusije, da se to reši”, kaže Šahbaz.

Tags Fuad Shahbazov Nova.RS

South Caucasus Region

Azerbaijan continues advance deeper into Armenian-held territory

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Post date 21/10/2020
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Screenshot of an official Azerbaijani video showing the capture of Zengilan.

Azerbaijan’s armed forces are continuing to advance deeper into previously Armenian-held territory, raising the prospects of an offensive into the heavily populated core of Nagorno-Karabakh itself.

Azerbaijan has recently pushed into several additional regions to the south of Nagorno-Karabakh, an area wedged between Armenia and Iran. On October 20, authorities announced that they had captured Zengilan, the former capital of the district of the same name, far in the southwest of the Armenian-occupied territories. They also claimed to have captured additional settlements in the provinces of Fuzuli, Jabrayil, Khojavand, and Zengilan.

Karabakh in the Post-War Period South Caucasus Region

Les drones, étendard de la puissance azerbaïdjanaise au Haut-Karabakh

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Post date 16/10/2020
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This image is taken from a video released by the Armenian Defense Ministry on Thursday, Oct. 1, 2020, allegedly shows the shooting down of an Azerbaijani unmanned aerial vehicle

Depuis bientôt trois semaines, le vrombissement menaçant des drones militaires accompagne le quotidien des habitants du Haut-Karabakh. « On a appris à les reconnaître à l’oreille », confie par téléphone Anush Ghavalyan, une analyste politique résidant à Stepanakert, la capitale de ce territoire peuplé d’Arménien, que revendique l’Azerbaïdjan. « Les Azerbaïdjanais s’en étaient déjà servi en 2016, mais là c’est du jamais vu. »

L’Azerbaïdjan fait un emploi immodéré des drones dans le conflit qui l’oppose depuis le 27 septembre aux forces séparatistes du Haut-Karabakh soutenues par l’Arménie. Servant à espionner les positions ennemies, guider les frappes d’artillerie, ou détruire des cibles au sol, ces aéronefs sans pilote ont permis à une armée azerbaïdjanaise mieux équipée de conforter sa supériorité. Le président du Haut-Karabakh, Araïk Haroutiounian a reconnu mercredi 14 octobre que les troupes séparatistes avaient été contraintes à reculer en plusieurs endroits de la ligne de front.

Tags Fuad Shahbazov La Croix

Karabakh in the Post-War Period

Nagorno-Karabakh: New weapons for an old conflict spell danger

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Post date 13/10/2020
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The new war over Nagorno-Karabakh is a conventional one, being fought by professional armed forces.

But this time, hi-tech 21st-century weaponry has the capacity to make this decades-old conflict more destructive than ever before. If official battlefield statistics are to be believed, the death toll is staggering. Azerbaijan has yet to confirm the number of its war dead. But Armenia claimed to have killed or wounded 5,000 Azeri personnel at the time of writing. Armenia has regularly updated its military body count, which so far stands at almost 500. Azerbaijan has estimated the real number is many times higher. Claims about territorial gains and losses inflicted on each side have proven difficult to verify. Not only have media teams limited access to the front-line fighting, but an aerial bombardment of civilian areas has also made their work extremely hazardous.

Tags Fuad Shahbaz Aljazeera Karabakh Bayraktar TB2

Karabakh in the Post-War Period South Caucasus Region

Pourquoi l’Arménie et l’Azerbaïdjan s’affrontent dans le Haut-Karabakh

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Post date 30/09/2020
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Armenian Artillery Units (Reuters)

DÉCRYPTAGE – Des combats transfrontaliers ont fait des dizaines de morts depuis le 27 septembre entre les deux pays, qui se disputent la région autonome du Haut-Karabakh. Un conflit ancestral, où Russie et Turquie ont des intérêts concurrents.

Faut-il croire les bilans annoncés ? En seulement 24 heures, pas moins de «550 soldats ennemis» auraient péri sous le feu de l’armée azerbaïdjanaise depuis le début des affrontements dimanche 27 septembre dans le Haut-Karabakh, une région indépendantiste de l’Azerbaïdjan, peuplée à majorité d’Arméniens, et soutenue par l’Arménie. Une armée azerbaïdjanaise qui aurait à son tour subi de lourdes pertes par les forces arméniennes, qui prétendent avoir éliminé, dans le même laps de temps, plus de 200 soldats de Bakou.

Tags Fuad Shahbazov LeFigaro Karabakh Armenia

Azerbaijani Politics South Caucasus Region

Trends and Factors Contributing to the July Border Clashes Between Azerbaijan and Armenia

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Post date 20/07/2020
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Azerbaijani soldiers. July 18, 2020. Photo: AFP Forum via Anadolu Agency/Resul Rehimov

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 17 Issue: 105

On July 12, the Azerbaijani border region of Tovuz and the Tavush region on the Armenian side became the new epicenter of clashes between the armed forces of the two states, with the involvement of heavy artillery and unmanned aerial drones (BBC News–Azerbaijani service, July 12). The intensive exchanges of fire resulted in the deaths of over a dozen military personnel and the destruction of local infrastructure on both sides. On July 14, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense notably confirmed the deaths of Major General Polad Hashimov and Colonel Ilgar Mirzayev as a result of artillery shelling by Armenian military units (APA, July 14). Such high-level losses provoked unprecedented and spontaneous mass protests in Baku, with approximately 30,000 people flooding Azadlig (Freedom) Square and the parliament building with demands on the authorities to take revenge on Armenia and immediately begin military mobilization (Anadolu Agency, July 15). This unsanctioned mass rally was the largest in many years and succeeded in pushing the government to take a number of measures, including kicking off a voluntary recruitment process (Oxu.az, July 16).

Tags Azerbaijan Armenia July clashes, Tovuz Azerbaijan Armenia